According to my contacts all over the country, EPRDF appears to have won the fourth.

Premising on the widely held view that the election is a lost battle for the opposition, not a few political commentators contend a post-election crisis is unlikely. Is that really, though? Is the likelihood of post-election crisis is contingent on how the opposition fare at the polls? A look at the previous elections and the makeup of the political landscape, reveals not only the likelihood of a crisis, but also the formula.