During his infamous interview with AlJazeera’s Jane Dutton a couple of years ago, his only plausible answer was his reply to the tens of thousands of Eritreans fleeing every month; or I thought it was. Isaias shrugged and asked Jane if she had seen people on the streets of Asmara on her way to the palace. Jane answered “yes, Mr. President”! For Isaias, the existence of individuals on the streets of Asmara was a hell of an evidence to invalidate Dutton’s “lies, lies, lies”. But here was an absolute denial: Isaias shrugged–off Dutton’s question about the defection of the Eritrean national football team in Kenya and blatantly responded “this is news for me”!

Contrary to Isaias’ pathology of blind denial, Eritreans have been fleeing “in droves, never missing an opportunity for a sporting trip abroad to abscond and seek asylum in Africa or Europe”[1]. Almost all members of Eritrean national teams that went to Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and London Olympics have sought asylum in their respective host states. The rest are crossing borders even under a strict shoot to kill policy at the borders. In fact, one need not watch CNN’s “Death in the desert: stand in the Sinai” documentary or read UNHCR’s report that almost 70,000 Eritreans had applied for asylum during the last decade, to believe the absconding of Eritreans in droves. It suffices to go to Gofa Sefer if you are in Addis or visit Adi-harush and Shimelba and you will wonder if there is anyone left back in Eritrea. Without exaggeration, Eritreans may hold the record for crossing and dying in the Sinai desert as a people, of course next to the Israelites’ exodus in the 12th c. BC!

Despite this mass exodus, however, nobody thought Isaias’ right hand or ‘son’, as Ethiopian Review would like to call him, Ali Abdu would defect. If Jane asked Isaias the same question again, would he ask her if she saw people on the streets of Asmara? Of course he would; it is Isaias, after all! But would Dutton reply “yes Mr. President”, again? More importantly, would Isaias ask Dutton if she saw Ali Abdu on her way to the palace? Mr. President, where is Ali Abdu? “ In an ironic development [and] thanks to the strict information controls Abdu helped erect during his decade-old tenure as an information minister”, IndepthAfrica.com argues, “ his movements over the past months have been shrouded in mystery, his possible defection from Afewerki is shielded from public view by the very system he helped create”. [2]

Ali Abdu’s alleged defection was first reported by a prominent Eritrean opposition media Assena. According to Assena, Ali Abdu has sought political asylum in Canada, where his wife had been granted asylum seven years ago. Recently, the same source reported that Ali Abdu’s favourite and only daughter in Asmara –Siham Ali Abdu- has also defected to Sudan and was granted a Canadian visa to join her parents. Immediately after Assena’s report on Ali Abdu’s defection, Medias that are sympathetic to Isaias quickly circulated the return of Ali Abdu to Asmara “ending Assena’s rumour”. Citing ‘credible inside sources’, Ethiopian Review also adamantly dismissed these rumours and claimed that Ali Abdu was still at the ministry of information. “As a matter of fact”, Ethiopian Review added, “Ali, who is like a son to Isaias, is one of the younger leader whose prominence in the Eritrean government will reach new heights in the post-Isaias era”[3].  Independent observers and evidences beg to differ: no one has seen Abdu in Asmara nor has he been at any official business or media since September. Attempts made by correspondents of VOA and Committee to Protect Journalists to get in touch with him were unsuccessful: none of his numbers worked, or he didn’t respond. The government has not been willing to comment on the issue either.

In the last ten years, Abdu has been the common face in the PR and propaganda of the Eritrean dictator, appearing in various international media outlets. During the liberation struggle, Ali Abdu was radio operator of Isaias. After independence, he had served as a deputy chairman of PFDJ’s satellite youth organisation, and led the Eritrean national youth and students association until he got promoted to minister of information. It could even be argued that Ali Abdu had been a defacto foreign affairs minister, actively leading the PFDJ’s foreign intelligence activities which included providing support to Somalia’s Alshabab and various Ethiopian rebels. Indeed, Ali was like a son to Isaias. Therefore, his disappearance from public view, any media and the diplomatic corps in Asmara begs the question: where is Ali Abdu? For Mohammed Keith of the Committee to Protect Journalists, Assena et al’s report of Ali Abdu’s defection “point to an unanswered question about his unusual disappearance from public view”[4]! Though these independent reports and evidences reinforce Ali Abdu’s possible defection, no one can be certain, at least for the time being, whether Ali Abdu is in Asmara or has defected, and his whereabouts remains to be a million dollar question. If Abdu has actually defected, it is indicative of the fact that Isaias’ control is slipping away.

Irrespective of his whereabouts, however, Ali Abdu’s disappearance from public view in the last five months by itself points to a bigger picture.  “Ali played a central role in one of the most oppressive governments on earth. The opacity that now surrounds his whereabouts is a symptom of more general problems in Eritrea, issues that have made life virtually impossible for much of the population- indeed, over a quarter-million Eritreans are living as refugees in surrounding countries”[5].  This, in turn, is symptomatic of Isaias’ grip on information and nearly everything. In addition, given Isaias’ grip on information and everything, one cannot dismiss the possibility that Isaias might be hiding Ali Abdu for propaganda consumption: by discrediting these reports, Isaias might attempt to disrepute every other report these media outlets- and by extension every other media- release about Eritrea. Remember what Isaias said weeks after his alleged death by the same media i.e Assena and international Medias? He said he had been sleeping for ten-plus-hours while the enemy was misinforming the world as usual.  He further indicated that the rumour “is but a continuation of the coordinated psychological warfare and anti-Eritrea smear campaign that has been going on for the past decade under various guises”[6]. Surprisingly, Isaias has been playing hide and seek with blogs lately. These are symptomatic of the beginning of the end of Isaias.

Post-Script: An ironic, but not surprising, development after the completion of this piece:

Perhaps due to his policy reorientation, if he had/has any, Isaias’ former client Elias Kifle recently disclosed (‘admitted’ is not the right word as he never seem to remember what he wrote just a month ago) the disappearance of Ali Abdu from public view since September, ironically citing the same ‘credible inside sources’ in Asmara who had informed him of the existence of Ali in Asmara!  It didn’t take a month for Isaias’ former client Elias Kifle to change from a staunch supporter to a fierce critic who cautions the dangerous rate at which Eritrea is losing its youth, adding that “hundreds of young Eritreans are crossing the border into Tigray daily”. For Elias, Eritrea is now “a country that is bleeding itself to death”[7].

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Footnote:

[1] Akaki, Sam (2012). ‘Hailemariam and Isaias should meet and give Africa a special New Year’s gift in 2013’, The Reporter XVII: 850, Dec. 22, 2012.

[2] Indepthafrica.com. (December 22nd, 2012). ‘Eritrea: The defections of Ali Abdu – Is Afewerki’s control slipping away?’ http://indepthafrica.com/eritrea-the-defections-of-ali-abdu-is-afewerkis-control-slipping-away/

[3] Ethiopian Review (21 Nov 2012). ‘Eritrea’s president decides to step down’ http://www.ethiopianreview.net/index/?p=49562

[4] Indepthafrica.com. (December 22nd, 2012). ‘Eritrea: The defections of Ali Abdu – Is Afewerki’s control slipping away?’ http://indepthafrica.com/eritrea-the-defections-of-ali-abdu-is-afewerkis-control-slipping-away/

[5] Ibid.

[6] Eritrean Ministry of Foreign Affairs (28 Apr 2012) ‘Isaias Afwerki: Reports of my death are highly exaggerated’ http://www.ethiopianreview.com/content/37929. , 29 Apr 2012.

[7] Ethiopian Review (27 Dec 2012). ‘President Isaias Afwerki headbutted an assistant’ http://www.ethiopianreview.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=46509.

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Please check the archives for more on the issues raised above.

* This article is part of the “Post-Meles 2012″ Special Edition of this blog.