Kenya and Ethiopia are still backing the plan to create a regional State of Jubaland around Kismayo. They would appear to have finally come to terms with the idea of a combined approach.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has backtracked a little on his original idea of setting up an administration in Kismayo controlled by Mogadishu and is now trying to bring the regional players to settle the issue via a tripartite negotiation. He would appear to have convinced the Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn when he visited Addis Ababa at the end of November, but is not likely to fare so well with the Kenyan authorities, which he is to meet soon in Nairobi. The Somalian federal government wants a transition authority to be rapidly appointed in Kismayo to run Jubaland until its inhabitants elect their own administration.
Talks are currently under way between the representatives of various clans and a technical committee consisting of delegates from the InterGovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Somalian federal government (see here –
http://www.africaintelligence.com/ION/politics-power/2012/12/14/the-president-s-men-in-kismayo,107936478-ART). The Ogaden are represented by Mohamed Ahmed Islam Madobe and Mohamed Abdi Gandhi, while the Ethiopian backed Marehan from the Gedo region are represented by General Abdullahi Sheikh Ismail Fartag and the Harti (Majerteen, Dhulbahante and Warsangeli) by General Mohamed Warsame Farah Darwish, a former director of intelligence services under the government of Abdullahi Yusuf. IGAD also invited some minority clans, like the Biyamal (Dir) and the Galjaal (Hawiye), but the Darod are in the dominant position at the negotiating table. The autonomous administration of Puntland, which supports the creation of an autonomous State of Jubaland, also wants its say on representing the Harti. So far, no outcome appears to be in sight, as neither of the two favourites to run Jubaland, Madobe and Gandhi, have managed to impose their will.
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*Originally published on Indian Ocean Newsletter No. 1346, Dec. 14, 2012 issue, titled ”
Somalia: Delicate birth of Jubaland”.
Check the Somalia archive for related posts.
