East African drought: Projections for Oct. to Dec. 2011 [full text]

Highlights:
* Somalia – 4 million people are in crisis (IPC Phases 3, 4, and 5), of which 3 million are in southern Somalia, and 750,000 are experiencing famine‐level outcomes.
* Food security is likely to improve [from Emergency] to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels in pastoral areas of Kenya and Ethiopia between October and December
* The October to December rains are expected to be near normal to above normal in most of the Eastern Horn
* Prices of staples are expected to decline during the outlook period following harvests, starting in September for Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda, and October in Ethiopia. Prices are also likely to decline in South Sudan following the harvest and inflows from Uganda and Ethiopia. Although prices will decline in these countries, they will most likely remain above the five‐year average. In Somalia, maize and sorghum prices are expected to increase further due to the very poor harvest.
* Ongoing security‐related market access problems will continue in eastern parts of Somali region of Ethiopia, limiting access to imported food items and leading to higher prices.
* Insecurity is expected to continue in Southern Somalia with continued trade restrictions affecting in and out flow of cereals and essential food items as well as humanitarian assistance, although access of aid is expected to increase in the coming months due to intense negotiation between local authorities and humanitarian actors in Somalia.

FEWS NET distributed by e-mail on Thursday, September 21, an update report of its projection of food security conditions in East Africa through December 2011.

FEWS NET, or Famine Early Warning Systems Network, is a USAID-funded system, established about two decades ago, to provide ‘timely and rigorous early warning and vulnerability information on emerging and evolving food security issues’ in collaboration with international, regional and national partners, according to the description on its website.

Here is the full text.

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EAST AFRICA Food Security Outlook Update

Key Messages

* In addition to Bakool agropastoral, Lower Shebele Region, agropastoral areas of Balcad and Cadale districts of Middle Shebelle, and the Afgoye corridor and Mogadishu IDP settlements, Bay region of Somalia also faces famine (Figure 1). At the national level, 4 million people are in crisis (IPC Phases 3, 4, and 5), of which 3 million are in southern Somalia, and 750,000 are experiencing famine‐level outcomes.

* In other areas of the Horn, Emergency levels (IPC Phase 4) of food insecurity persist due to high food prices, limited access to water, low milk availability, and insufficient humanitarian response. Extremely high levels of malnutrition have been reported in some of these areas, with GAM rates of 37 percent in Turkana District.

* Food security is likely to improve to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels in pastoral areas of Kenya and Ethiopia between October and December, due to the forecast for near‐normal to above‐normal October to December rains in most of the eastern Horn, ongoing relief interventions, and expected declines in staple food prices. However, in southern Somalia, famine conditions will persist due to insecurity that limits the humanitarian and recovery response, the low harvest, and continued high food prices.

* In Sudan, the poor start of season has led to poor crop establishment and significantly reduced area planted in the semi‐mechanized and traditional rainfed areas, particularly in Gadarif, Senar, and Blue Nile States – the country’s ‘grain basket.’ In addition, the intensified conflict in Blue Nile State has led to increased displacement, constrained access to labor markets, and limited seasonal cattle migration.

Updated regional food security outlook through December 2011

The most likely food security scenario through December is premised on the following assumptions:

(i) The October to December rains are expected to be near normal to above normal in most of the Eastern Horn except in northern Somalia; eastern and southern Ethiopia; northwestern Kenya; northern Uganda; southwestern Rwanda; southern Burundi and western Tanzania, where there is an increased likelihood of near normal to below normal rainfall based on the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum 29th consensus meeting held in early September 2011 (Figure 3).

(ii) Prices of staples are expected to decline during the outlook period following harvests, starting in September for Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda, and October in Ethiopia. Prices are also likely to decline in South Sudan following the harvest and inflows from Uganda and Ethiopia. Although prices will decline in these countries, they will most likely remain above the five‐year average. In Somalia, maize and sorghum prices are expected to increase further due to the very poor harvest.

(iii) The price of rice is also likely to increase following a new Thai rice policy expected to lead to an increase in rice prices worldwide, as Thailand supplies 25‐34 percent of world exports. This will mainly impact Djibouti and Somalia, where rice is the staple food in some areas.

(iv) Livestock that have migrated to different areas in search of pasture and water for extended periods during the long drought will return to their areas of origin in October/November with improved availability of pasture and water.

(v) Milk availability will improve for shoats and camels but remain average to below average due to reduced conceptions over the past year. Cattle milk availability will be scarce.

(vi) Livestock mortalities (mostly cattle) of about 5 to 10 percent are anticipated due to poor physical condition as the rains begin in October.

(vii) Livestock prices will likely increase beginning in November due to improved physical conditions following the near normal rains.

(viii)Ongoing security‐related market access problems will continue in eastern parts of Somali region of Ethiopia, limiting access to imported food items and leading to higher prices.

(ix) Insecurity is expected to continue in Southern Somalia with continued trade restrictions affecting in and out flow of cereals and essential food items as well as humanitarian assistance, although access of aid is expected to increase in the coming months due to intense negotiation between local authorities and humanitarian actors in Somalia.

(x) The current level of humanitarian assistance is expected to continue in all areas including very limited assistance in Bay, southern Bakool and much of Shabelle.

Somalia

Famine has expanded to more regions of southern Somalia. In addition to Bakool agropastoral, Lower Shebele Region, agropastoral areas of Balcad and Cadale districts of Middle Shebelle, Afgoye corridor IDP settlement and the Mogadishu IDP settlement, Bay region of Somalia also faces famine (Figure 1). At the national level, 4 million people are in crisis (IPC Phase 3, 4 and 5), of which 3 million are in southern Somalia, and 750,000 are experiencing famine level outcomes. Following two consecutive seasons of poor rains, crop production this year has been extremely poor in southern Somalia. The Gu harvest (June/July) this year has been only 32 percent of the 2006 to 2010 average. The combination of both the short rains harvest (deyr) and the long rains harvest (gu) has been much below the long‐term average and the lowest since 1996 (Figure 4). In addition to the poor crop production, terms of trade have shown a substantial steady decline. For example in Jamame (Juba Valley Trade Basine), the amount of cereal that a daily laborer could buy using daily wages has declined from 25 kg in August last year to 2.5 kg in August this year (Figure 5). In Qorioley (Shebelle Valley Trade Basin), the income from the sale of a local quality goat could buy 260 Kg of cereal in August last year while this year, it can only buy 55 kg.

Figure 5. Terms of trade in southern Somalia Daily wage:cereal Terms of Trade Local quality goat:cereal Terms of Trade

A combination of the decline in crop production both for own consumption and for sale, and the decline in the ability of the pastoralists in this area to purchase food through the sale of livestock or through wage labor, has substantially diminished the ability of poor pastoralists to access food. Poor agropastoralists in Bay, Bakool and Lower Shebelle Riverine will most likely be able to meet only 40‐50 percent of the food they need for survival from these sources. This severe constraint to food access in southern Somalia is evidenced by the nutrition survey results conducted in July and August 2011, revealing extremely high levels of malnutrition and mortality outcomes that are synonymous with the famine threshold (Table 1).

Table 1. Acute malnutrition and mortality outcomes in Southern Somalia

For an area to be classified at the famine level of food insecurity using the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC), evidence of three specific outcomes is required:

1. At least 20 percent of the population face extreme food deficits and have very limited ability to cope;

2. Global acute malnutrition prevalence must exceed 30 percent; and

3. Crude death rates must exceed 2/10,000/day.

Based on these criteria, 25‐75 percent of poor agropastoral households in Gedo and Juba and pastoral households in Bakool (total population of 750,000 people) face famine levels of food insecurity. The number of people facing an acute food and livelihood crisis nationwide has increased from 3.7 million in July to 4 million in August. Out of these, 3 million are in the south. Out of the 3 million in the south, 2.6 million people are facing Emergency and Famine levels and need life saving assistance. According to UNHCR, it is estimated that more than 917,000 Somalis now live as refugees in the four neighboring countries: Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Yemen. Approximately one in every three refugees was forced to flee this year. In addition, more than 1.4 million Somalis are internally displaced. One third of Somalia’s estimated 7.5 million people is now displaced. However, the number of people arriving at the refugee camps in Ethiopia and Kenya began to decline in August following the start of humanitarian assistance in southern Somalia. There are reports of an increase in confirmed cases of measles in Mogadishu and other regions of Somalia. Confirmed cases of cholera and acute watery diarrhea are also on the rise in Mogadishu, Kismayo and other urban areas.

Although the October to December 2011 (deyr) rains are expected to be near‐ normal, due to the continued decline in terms of trade and the very limited humanitarian assistance, especially in Bay, southern Bakool and much of Shebelle including Afgoye, food security in the agropastoral areas of Gedo, Juba, Hiran and Middle Shebelle, riverine areas of Gedo and Juba, and pastoral areas of Bakool is likely to deteriorate to Famine during the outlook period. Some improvement in food security is expected in pastoral Gedo, Juba and Bakool due to impacts of the rains and the return of camel herds from their current areas of migration.

Pastoral and cropping areas of Mandera Triangle of Ethiopia and Kenya, and Turkana District (Kenya)

The pastoral and cropping areas of the Greater Mandera Triangle of Ethiopia and Kenya include the northeastern pastoral areas of Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, the eastern pastoral areas including Tana River and Ijara and the northern pastoral areas of Moyale and Marsabit in Kenya. In Ethiopia this includes Afder and Liben zones of Somali Region and lowlands of Bale, Borena and Gujji zones of Oromia Region.

Across all the districts in Kenya, about 20‐30 percent of pastoralists have lost all their livestock following recurrent droughts with limited inter‐leading recovery periods. In Guji zone of Ethiopia, the loss has been estimated at 16 percent with the worst‐affected woreda reporting a mortality rate of 42 percent.

Currently livestock have migrated to areas where water and pasture are relatively better. In Kenya 70‐ 80 percent of livestock have migrated to southeastern Garissa, Ijara, southeast and coastal marginal agricultural areas, southwest Marsbit, north Samburu and towards the national parks where the range resources are still favorable. Similar conditions are also reported in Ethiopia and livestock have migrated to areas where rains were relatively better in Somali region such as Filtu and midlands and highlands of neighboring Oromia region. Milk availability is very low currently due to low conception rates in the past two consecutive seasons and current shortages of pasture and water.

Migration of livestock is also another reason for the low milk availability. In Liben zone of Ethiopia, milk availability has declined by 45 percent for camels, 50‐ 60 percent for cattle, and 80 percent for goats as compared to the reference year (2004/2005). In Kenya milk production is significantly below normal: less than 50 percent of households can access half a liter of milk, compared to the usual 1‐3 liters in average years. There has also been a substantial reduction in crop production in the agropastoral areas. For example in Borena and Guji zones of Ethiopia, maize production is only 5 to 25 percent of the reference year (2006) and complete failure of crops was reported on the Kenya side. Prices of staples are generally much higher than average in Kenya and Ethiopia and prices of livestock have declined, leading to worsening pastoralist terms of trade in most areas (Figure 6). This has led to significant declines in food consumption in these areas. In parts of Wajir and Mandera, the distribution of livestock off‐take meat, cash/food vouchers and blanket supplementary feeding have helped improve food consumption at the household level. However, reduced access to food has contributed to high levels of malnutrition in children under five (Figure 7) as well as lack of water and high risk of infectious diseases. In areas where insecurity has persisted (such as Turkana), it has resulted in higher levels of malnutrition.

Most parts of these areas in Ethiopia and Kenya are currently at the Emergency level of food insecurity while areas that received relatively better rains towards the end of April/beginning of May are at Crisis levels. With the forecasted normal to above normal October to December rains, improvement in water, pasture and browse is expected in the Mandera Triangle area of Ethiopia and Kenya. Supply of cereals is expected to improve beginning in October and November, when the harvest from the meher/long rains season in the crop producing parts of Ethiopia and in Kenya becomes available, leading to declines in staple prices. Livestock that migrated are expected to return to their areas of origin. Physical condition of livestock is expected to improve with the improved availability of pasture and water, leading to improved income from livestock sales, although sales are expected to be lower than average due to the large deaths during the drought. Some improvement in milk availability, mainly goat milk, is also expected, though much less than average, as conceptions during the drought were low. Average crop production for this season is expected in Kenya and Ethiopia with the start of the rains. Emergency relief food assistance is expected to continue both in Ethiopia and Kenya.

Based on these assumptions, food security is expected to improve to Crisis levels in woredas/districts that are currently at Emergency levels. Woredas/districts that are currently at Crisis levels are expected to continue to remain at this level until the end of the outlook period. Sustained improvements in food security in these areas will, however, require several consecutive good rain seasons to boost conceptions, enhance milk availability, and provide sufficient time for the pastoralists and agropastoralists in these areas to re‐build herd sizes to pre‐drought levels.

Southeastern marginal agricultural areas and coastal lowlands of Kenya

The marginal southeastern and coastal lowland districts of Kenya, including Kwale, Kilifi, Malindi, Makueni, Mwingi, Kitui, Tharaka, Mbeere, Mwea, and Machakos, have experienced two consecutive seasons of poor crop production in 2010 and 2011. The long rains maize harvest for 2011 in these marginal districts was estimated to be 5‐10 percent of average in the Southeast and 50‐60 percent of average in the Coastal areas. Less than 20 percent of households have food stocks that are expected to last one month instead of the usual three months due to the near total crop failure. Maize prices have increased substantially across the southeast marginal agricultural and retail prices are above July average by 100‐140 percent in Nyeri, Meru North, Tharaka, Mbeere and Mwingi; 70‐100 percent in Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu on the coast. Cattle body conditions are rapidly declining as competition for grazing resources has intensified due to an influx of cattle from pastoral areas. There is also resource‐based conflict due to in‐migration of pastoralists, particularly in Mwingi, Kitui and Taita Taveta. Food assistance is being provided in these areas, and shared widely.

Food consumption has markedly declined and poor households in many parts of Mwingi and Kitui are unable to meet survival needs.

Poor households are using negative (e.g., increased charcoal production), and in some unusual cases, more extreme coping strategies (sale of draft animals); children are being removed from school to sell water and other petty trading. The majority of poor and very poor households are consuming two to three food groups only instead of the normal more than five at similar time of the year. At the same time, the number of meals consumed has declined from three to four per day to one to two. Food security for the majority of poor households across this area has reached Crisis levels, and Emergency levels in parts of Mwingi and Kitui.

Performance of the short rains (October to December) is expected to be normal to above normal in these areas based on the ICPAC forecast. Area planted is expected to increase to above‐average levels, leading to improved availability of agricultural labor. Pasture and water availability is expected to improve with the start of the rains in October. Milk availability is also expected to improve with the improved availability of pasture and water. Staple prices are expected to decline with the ongoing harvest and anticipated inflow of cereals from Uganda, Tanzania and highlands of Kenya. Poor households’ ability to purchase required quantity and diversity of food is expected to improve beginning in October following the improved labor opportunities and declining prices of pulses and cereal. Food security of poor household will improve to Stressed Phase of food insecure category from mid‐November to December 2011.

Sudan and Ethiopia seasonal progress update

The main season June to September/October rains started very late throughout eastern Sudan, Eritrea, and northern/eastern Ethiopia. The distribution of the rains has also been erratic in the past two months.

In Sudan, the contribution of the traditional sector constitutes about 25 percent of total annual national crop production. Typically crops are planted in June and July in this area. This year by mid August, area planted was only about 35 percent of average following the poor performance of the rains in June/July. The semi mechanized sector of Sudan contributes about 50 percent of total annual crop production of the country. The optimum time for planting of crops in this area is early July to mid August. Typically, about 80 percent of the areas should be planted by end of July or first week of August. This year however, by mid August only 40 percent of the area was planted.

Since mid‐August, rains have improved and more area has been planted in both sectors, however it is projected that area planted in both sectors will not exceed 60‐70 percent of normal and the yield is most likely to be lower than the five‐year average, and far below the good harvest of last year in the east and central areas of Sudan, Blue Nile, Sennar, and South Kordofan. The satellite based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) also shows that these areas in Sudan and parts of western Eritrea and western Ethiopia are drier than normal (Figure 9).

The delay in the start of the rains will likely lead to delayed harvest leading to an extension of the lean season by about a month in these areas. Despite the extension of the lean season however, these areas are expected to continue to be generally food secure throughout the outlook period as crop production last year was very good and they have carried over stocks from last year’s good harvest. In addition to the carryover stocks from last year, this year’s harvest is expected to start in November. Although stocks would most likely deplete rapidly, they are expected to last through the outlook period therefore these areas are not expected to face acute food insecurity through the outlook period. The exceptions are South Kordofan and Blue Nile States, where continued fighting between SPLM‐N and SAF is disrupting livelihoods and causing displacement, the food security in these areas likely to remain high‐crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the outlook period. Impacts from a reduced harvest are likely to be felt in Sudan and in South Sudan, which imports over 50 percent of its grain supplies from Sudan, during the next lean season (May to September 2012).

Table 2. Less likely events through December that could change the above scenarios