[The following two updates, titled ‘Al-Shabaab fighters forced out of Mogadishu and its retreat improves prospects for aid deliveries in Somalia’, is from A Week in the Horn, August 12 issue.]

Al-Shabaab fighters forced out of Mogadishu

Last Saturday, in a mass evacuation, Al-Shabaab forces pulled out of Mogadishu withdrawing towards Bal’ad and Afgoye towns thirty kilometers west, with many subsequently retreating further to Baidoa and Kismayo. According to reports from Kismayo over fifty carloads of fighters arrived there at the beginning of the week. Most of Al-Shabaab’s senior foreign fighters, however, went by a different route, flying out from Balidogle airstrip to the north of the city. The withdrawal came as a surprise both to the TFG and AMISOM even though government forces had achieved a series of victories in recent months and made considerable advances on the ground in Mogadishu. One effect of this had been the tightening of government control around the Bakhara market and a substantial loss of revenue for Al-Shabaab. In addition, the recent death ofOsama Bin Laden, and of Fazul Mohammed, has affected the influence of Al Qaeda in Al-Shabaab. This has been underlined by an internal power struggle, differences of opinion on tactics and strategy between local and foreign fighters, and sharp disagreements among the leadership over how to deal with the effects of the drought and respond to international demands for access by aid agencies. The drought and famine has produced a real crisis for Al-Shabaab whose inability to respond effectively has seriously damaged its credibility.  

This has been underlined by the different statements and stances taken over the aid agencies. Following an apparent lifting of the ban on international aid, the chief commander of Al-Shabaab, Ahmad Abdi Abu-Zubeyr “Godane”, as we noted last week, took a tough, hard line on distribution of the food aid intended for the people of Bay and Bakool regions. His actions were seen by others as a deliberate attempt to slow down or even halt distribution. It infuriated the Rahenweyne clan elders. They summoned Sheikh Mukhtar Robow “Abu-Mansoor”, Al-Shabaab’s second in command, and told him either to  convince “Godane” to accept the distribution of food aid within the territories of the Digil and Mirifle (Rahenweyne) immediately or withdraw all Digil and Merifle Al-Shabaab fighters back to Baidoa. When “Godane” remained obdurate, Sheikh Mukhtar Robow acted on the second alternative.

Some of the younger members of Al-Shabaab’s leadership have also lined up with Sheikh Muktar Robow, including Abu-Musab, an Ogadeni from Juba, and Yusuf from Hiiraan region. They have been campaigning strongly for Al-Shabaab to withdraw from Mogadishu and use its fighters to strengthen Al-Shabaab in the regions. There has been growing concern among Al-Shabaab commanders about the threat of an offensive in the areas outside Mogadishu, especially in Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Hiiraan and Juba regions. There have also been worries over rumoured possible external involvement from Ethiopia or Kenya, and over the recent successes of US and French helicopters and drone strikes, particularly in the Kismayo area. Colonel Hassan Dahir Aweys, former Chairman of Hizbul-Islam and now commander for Al-Shabaab in Dusamareb has also sided with Mukhtar Robow, Fuad Shongole, and Sheikh Ali Dheere (Al-Shabaab’s spokesman) and others criticizing the views of “Godane” who wanted to stay in Mogadishu.

The strength of the opposition to “Godane” became apparent again last week at a meeting of senior Al-Shabaab commanders, together with the senior figures among the foreign fighters. It was a rowdy meeting, which was described as ending in self-recrimination and finger pointing, with “Godane” even accused of being behind the death of Fazul Abdalla Mohammed. “Godane”, who himself believes his opponents may have arranged for the “mistake” that led to Fazul’s death, was furious and walked out. In fact, according to internal sources in Al-Shabaab, the rank and file fighters have decided that Ibrahim Al-Afghani (Abubakar Al-Zeyli’i) must be given the local leadership of Al-Shabaab, while “Godane” should take over as Al Qaeda representative for East Africa.

There has been an ongoing dispute between the two men and the loss of public support and the recent military defeats that Al-Shabaab has suffered have been attributed to the deep rift between them. Ahmad Abdi “Godane”, who was the right hand man of Adan Hashi Ayro, took over the leadership of Al-Shabaab after Ayro was killed in an American missile raid in Galguduud Region. Ibrahim Afghani became his deputy. Both “Godane” and Ibrahim Afghani come from the same clan, but the appointments triggered a power struggle between them.

Al-Shabaab sources say the decision to remove “Godane” from the leadership of Al-Shabaab was actually agreed several months ago but was never implemented because of the dispute between “Godane” and Ibrahim Afghani. The rift between them also caused divisions among other Al-Shabaab officials who were divided in their views. It now appears “Godane” has been officially told to hand over his role, a move accepted by Al-Shabaab members from the Darod, Hawiye and Rahenweyne clans, including Sheikh Mukhtar Robow, Sheikh Fuad Shongole and Colonel Hasan Dahir Aweys. They have made it clear they support Ibrahim Afghani as leader of Al-Shabaab. They have also accepted “Godane” as head of Al Qaeda in East Africa. Al Qaeda had asked Al-Shabaab to put a name forward to fill the post after the death of Fazul Abdalla Mohammed in June. These decisions are intended to put an end to the rift between the two men.

While Al-Shabaab’s withdrawal from Mogadishu has been welcomed by government, AMISOM and aid agencies alike, it has left major worries over whether the TFG is capable of administering the whole of the city. There is some pessimism about the TFG’s capacity and preparedness, and concern about the possibility of a reappearance of clan controlled territories, with the danger of north-eastern districts falling under Abgal control, central areas to the Haber Gidir and the west and part of central areas to the Murasade. This would seriously undermine the TFG. Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a forces in Mogadishu have been expanding their influence in some areas, while Brigadier-General Yusuf Indha’ade is reportedly spreading his influence from Hodon towards the Bakhara Market.

At the beginning of the week the government offered an amnesty to Al-Shabaab, calling on any remaining Al-Shabaab fighters in the city to give themselves up and renounce violence. “Put down your weapons and your guns, and come and join the people and your society…For those who have been misled by the senior commanders, now is the time to end the war.” There are still some Al-Shabaab remnants in the city, and there has been some shooting. The Cabinet held an emergency session this week to address the security situation, debating whether to form joint security units composed of police, intelligence and military units or to deploy the military on the outskirts of the city to prevent infiltration. There are fears the retreating forces may have mined some areas as they left. TFG and AMISOM forces are conducting house-to-house searches to ensure the safety of residents returning to the districts of Yaqshid and Wardhiigley and areas surrounding Mogadishu Stadium, a former stronghold of Al-Shabaab. Searches are also taking place in Karan, Hodan, and Howlwadag. The police have re-established themselves in the police stations in Bakhara and Suq Ba’ad markets, previously held by Al-Shabaab; and AMISOM have already begun to move into Shibis, Abdi Aziz and neighboring areas.

In the past it has been common for Al-Shabaab to disappear into local communities at need, to bury their heavier arms and ammunition supplies, often in the forested areas of Lower Shebelle region and Ras Kamboni, and hide any armoured vehicles. They have also been known to recruit local militia and train and equip them to carry out proxy hit and run attacks on government forces and installations as an interim measure while Al-Shabaab forces recuperate and reorganize. It may be difficult for the TFG to deal with this. The TFG needs to carry out swift consultations with various elements of the Hawiye community in Mogadishu, clan elders, businessmen, and civil society groups as well as politicians, and other groups like Ahlu Sunna. Unless it can tighten its grip quickly, other competing groups will try to take advantage of Al-Shabaab’s withdrawal.   

At the beginning of the week, President Sheikh Sharif visited Uganda to ask President Museveni to provide a further 3,000 troops to bring AMISOM up to the full 12,000 strength mandated by the UN Security Council and the AU. AMISOM’s new commander, Major General Fred Mugisha, who took over last week, has said AMISOM urgently requires additional troops as well as a maritime and air capacity to secure the city and create an enabling environment for the provision of aid. AMISOM is now working with the TFG on a new security plan but this will require more troops for AMISOM as it now has to cover a much larger area. General Mugisha appealed to AMISOM’s international partners to expedite the deployment of the 3,000 extra troops already authorized by the Security Council as a matter of urgency.

Al-Shabaab has claimed its retreat from Mogadishu was only tactical, but General Mugisha said even though the retreat appeared to have been deliberate and coordinated, it had actually been forced by TFG and AMISOM successes. “They did not abandon Mogadishu of their own free will,” he said. He admitted that there were still pockets of insurgents in the city, particularly near the pasta factory and north east of the stadium. Nevertheless, he emphasized this week that “90-95 percent of Mogadishu” had been liberated. There is no doubt that this will mean a significant loss of revenue for Al-Shabaab which  was collecting taxes from around 4,000 shops in Mogadishu, most in Bakhara, with fees ranging from $50 a month from small shops to thousands of dollars from large telecommunication companies. Certainly, the retaking of Mogadishu is, as TFG Prime Minister Dr. Abdiweli called it “a tremendous step forward” but the TFG now has to demonstrate it can use the opportunity provided. It is also a real chance for international aid agencies to start to provide aid on a substantial scale to the hundreds of thousands in need in and around Mogadishu (see below).

******

and its retreat improves prospects for aid deliveries in Somalia

The retreat of Al-Shabaab from Mogadishu has raised hopes that international aid agencies will now finally be able to step up aid deliveries to the thousands of internally displaced people in and around Mogadishu, and perhaps more widely. Almost immediately after the weekend thousands of IDPs from around the city began to move into it, and there were reports that many more were on their way from the nearby famine areas despite the dangers of continuing fighting.  According to Mark Bowden, head of UN OCHA for Somalia, aid is reaching no more than 20% of the 2.6 million Somalis who need it, though about half the 600,000 people in Mogadishu are receiving aid. Transport and security remain the major problems. A car bomb exploded prematurely 13 kilometers south of Mogadishu on Monday, and there has even been a shootout or two at aid distribution points.

The World Food Programme has airlifted 86 tons of fortified food for malnourished children to Mogadishu, the first part of a planed 2,000 tons. It will also be sending another 10,000 tons of fortified cereals to Somalia by air and road. It is beginning an airlift of 2,000 tons of high energy biscuits to the region for delivery to the most vulnerable in the Somali refugee camps in Kenya and Ethiopia. This week also saw the arrival of the first UNHCR chartered plane into Mogadishu for five years, bringing emergency aid including shelters and blankets.  A second plane arrived yesterday and a third is scheduled for next week.

The UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) is hosting a high-level ministerial meeting in Rome next Thursday, August 18th. The aim is to agree on steps to start a short-term agricultural recovery in the affected areas of the Horn of Africa; to identify concrete programmes and projects for action by governments in the region.  Suggestions will include cash for work in agriculture and water harvesting, seed distribution, vaccination and animal feeding, irrigation and food storage. The FAO is concerned that support for incomes and safeguarding people’s assets, like livestock, has so far been overlooked, and this will make recovery harder. The meeting will set the scene for the pledging conference called by the African Union, to be held in Addis Ababa on August 25th.

The international agencies are currently facing serious shortfalls in funds and pledges. The UNHCR says that emergency food stocks inside Somalia and elsewhere are being rapidly depleted, and there are still major shortfalls in funding. UN agencies are calling urgently on donor countries, the private sector and individuals to help close the funding gap. This week, as Jill Biden, the wife of the US Vice-President, and Dr. Shah, administrator of USAID, visited Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya, the US approved another $105 million for urgent humanitarian relief. On Tuesday, this week, the UN Emergency Relief Co-ordinator, Catherine Bragg, warned that the peak of the crisis had not yet been reached. She cited the high levels of severe malnutrition and the deaths of those under five combined with high cereal prices and a dry harvest season. She appealed to the international community for the 1.3 billion dollars needed urgently to save lives. The famine is expected to spread to all regions of southern Somalia in the next four to six weeks. Other parts of the region also remain in crisis. 

Meanwhile, the Ethiopian government and UNHCR jointly launched a vaccination campaign for famine displaced Somali children following a suspected measles outbreak. All the children in Kobe, the most affected of the Dollo Ado camps, will be vaccinated, and the campaign, which will include vaccination against polio, will be extended as necessary to the other camps. There are an estimated 118,000 Somali refugees in the Dollo Ado camps, and a fourth camp, at Hilaweyn has just been opened.

This week, the Ethiopia Red Cross Society launched an appeal for 240 million birr to provide assistance for six months for a total of 165,000 people in need of assistance in the Guji and Borena zones of Oromia Regional State.  This will provide support for food relief, water and sanitation and emergency health care.  The ERCS said it would be working in close collaboration with the Disaster Risk Management and Food Security department of the Ministry of Agriculture.

*****************

Check the Somalia Archive and Ministry of Foreign Affairs Archive for related posts.