[The following update, titled Al-Shabaab planning another Ramadan offensive?, is from A Week in the Horn July 29 issue.]

Al-Shabaab planning another Ramadan offensive?

Despite Al-Shabaab’s serious defeat during the offensive it launched during Ramadan last year, there are expectations it will attempt to go on the offensive in Ramadan again this year. Ramadan is due to start on August 1st.  In the last month or so, Al-Shabaab has seen a significant drop in its funds and in its popularity, but there is evidence that it has been trying to build up its arms before the arrival of Ramadan. Two weeks ago, the organization apparently received a consignment of arms and ammunition through a village near the port of Brava, possibly from Yemen. It has also been regrouping its forces and sending a thousand newly recruited, and barely trained troops to Mogadishu in an attempt to revive the support of its donors and prove Al-Shabaab is intact in the city. Similarly, it appears Al-Shabaab has sent another 150 new fighters to the Gedo region. Despite its current funding constraints, it has promised these new recruits salaries of US $250 a month. Over the last month, Al-Shabaab training camps in Lower Shebelle, Bay and Middle Shebelle regions have been filled with youngsters drawn from the regions under Al-Shabaab control.  Overall, in the areas of south central Somalia, Al-Shabaab is believed to have between sixty and eighty battlewagons (“technicals”), mostly land cruiser pick-ups armed with B10, ZU 23s and DSKH weapons.  

The planned offensive is expected to focus on Mogadishu, Central Somalia and Gedo regions. These are the regions in which Al-Shabaab has previously suffered significant defeats at the hands of the TFG/AMISOM and Ahlu Sunna forces. The TFG, AMISOM and Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a have been making extensive preparations to respond to any such offensive in these areas. Reports suggest that the Al-Shabaab commander in central Somalia was recently killed when his car was hit by a roadside bomb near El-Buur as part of Ahlu Sunna’s preparations for resisting any Al-Shabaab offensive. 

As part of their preparation for the planned offensive, it seems that Al-Shabaab commanders have again been reassigned on a clan basis. Al-Shabaab tried this last year though with little apparent effect.  Abu-Zubeyr “Godane”, (Isaaq) was assigned to Somaliland, Fuad Shongole was told to go to Puntland, Colonel Hassan Dahir Aweys to Central Somalia, Muktar Robow “Abu-Mansoor” to Bay and Bakool regions, Sheikh Ali Dheere, the Al-Shabaab spokesperson, to take command in Mogadishu, and Hassan Turki in the Juba region. Sheikh Muktar Robow has already taken his Rahenweyne fighters to Bay and Bakool regions after disagreement with “Godane” over whether to allow international aid agencies into Al-Shabaab controlled areas.  

Meanwhile, the new cabinet of Prime Minister Dr. Abdiweli Mohamed Ali has been overwhelmingly endorsed by Parliament. Out of 420 MPs, 397 voted in favor, 21 voted against and 2 abstained, despite the fact that the decision that previous TFG Cabinet members would not be considered had come in for considerable criticism. There remains some concern over the background of many of the new ministers, some of whom are from Europe and America and have been out of the country for a long time. This is particularly the case with the important security ministries which have been so successful in recent months. A handover ceremony from the outgoing to the incoming Ministers took place on Wednesday at State House in the presence of the President, the Speaker and the Prime Minister. Speaking after the vote, the Prime Ministerpromised that he would resume the fight against Al-Shabaab, work to establish security as a whole and deal with corruption, pirates, and improving the government’s relationship with the international community.

The Prime Minister also condemned Al-Shabaab in forthright terms for reinstating the ban on international humanitarian agencies at a time when the country is suffering catastrophic famine."The extremists are literally and deliberately starving the people to death," he said, after the reports that they were also stopping people from leaving areas under their control in search of food. He appealed to the world to come to the aid of Somalia and to help free her people from both the famine and the inhuman treatment of the insurgents. "The international community must come to our aid by giving us, not just food, but also the means to get rid of these callous terrorists in Somalia who have no regard for the interest of the Somali people," he said, adding that “the insurgency itself is the root cause of the famine”. He emphasized that the government, with the support of AMISOM, was doing all it could to tackle the immediate crisis as well as defeat the extremists. It had established a relatively secure zone in the southern half of Mogadishu where humanitarian agencies could deliver emergency assistance. "With more resources and troops, we could expand this to cover the whole country”, he added, and “we must do this if we are to save the lives of millions."

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