[Originally published on Somaliland Press.]
Since its secession from the rest of Somalia in 1991, successive Somaliland governments have worked tirelessly to gain recognition that many believe it warrants. However, still recognition eludes her. One thing is certain; under no circumstances will Somaliland people accept to rejoin Somalia, therefore, why the rest of the world is delaying what is inevitable at the expense of 3.5 million people who only want to build viable democratic institutions after the failed concept of uniting Somalis under the auspices of the Somali Republic in 1960. When the two countries joined together what underpinned their agreement was the idea that the union was not an end in itself but a means to an end. The ultimate goal was to bring all Somali territories lost to Ethiopia and Kenya under the Somali Republic. Somali flag effectively represents not only Somalia and Somaliland but also those territories controlled by Ethiopia and Kenya as well as Djibouti. This was why Somalia fought with Ethiopia in 1977 and if it had succeeded in its attempt to bring back the Ogaden region, it would have waged war against Kenya.
So from the outset, the union was built on a future promise and not an intrinsic desire of the two peoples (as the ordinary man and woman of the two countries were spectators in their own destiny) to form a one nation state. The Somali Republic was a process and any remarriage between Somalia and Somaliland will remain a process until the lost territories are regained. Therefore, it is safe to say that an agreement built on a hypothetical outcome of the future is always a recipe for future wars between Somalia and the neighbouring countries.
Given on the shaky foundations the union was created, given the huge sympathy Somaliland enjoys from some countries, why does her quest for recognition remain unanswered? According to the Somaliland government, the west looks to Africa to take the lead whilst the rest of Africa looks to Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti’s leadership on this issue. But is this a mere convenience or a genuine lack of understanding about the powers at play in the Horn of Africa? This article will address the defects of the policies of the successive Somaliland governments, the reasons behind the inability of African governments to show leadership and the misguided view of the west that Africa will recognise Somaliland. In the end, It will argue Somaliland’s hope rests on the west.
Somaliland Mistakes
Since its inception Somaliland has seen four governments. The first government did not last long as it could not contain the militias and gave way to civil war. The second government led by Mohmmed Ibrahim Eghal entirely focused on internal issues – underpinning the peace and starting state institutions from scratch with limited resources. Therefore, it did not have much scope to operate and develop its foreign policy. The third government, which was in power for nearly a decade developed sound democratic institutions but lacked a cohesive approach to persuade the international community. Although the president, Mohammed Riyale Kahin, at the time made great strides towards democracy, including bringing about two elections and gracefully handing over power to his current successor, Ahmed Mohammed Siilanyo, his government lacked the talent needed to advance the Somaliland course.
According to the documents leaked by the Wikileaks, when the Ethiopian Prime Minster, Melez Zenawi, advised Riyale on how to raise the Somaliland recognition with the AU, the president did not follow his advice. “…he urged him [Rayale] to write to the AU requesting that they identify a timeframe for a discussion on the Somaliland issue. However, Rayale “messed things up” by essentially re-sending his previous letter requesting recognition and membership in the AU, rather than asking for a timeframe for a discussion on Somaliland. Meles said that, if Somaliland had taken the route that he suggested, it would have been likely that the issue could have been addressed soon. However, if the elections for a new AU Chairperson take place during the AU Summit, Meles said that the next chairperson is unlikely to be as positive towards Somaliland as Konare, which will only further delay any discussion of Somaliland.”
This shows that his government was not in tune with the line of the African Union, that his Foreign Minister and his advisors were not capable to lead the Somaliland recognition.
The current government led by Siilanyo has a pool of talented individuals at its disposable and is trying to develop a coherent foreign policy. This puts emphasis on both investment and recognition, as the Foreign Minister said at the UN, “AID does not build bridges or roads.” However, the government is not presenting its case vigorously and evaluating the probability of the states that might endorse the Somaliland recognition if presented in a manner that satisfies their concerns. For example, the west wants Africa to take the lead but what is the probability of an African nation being the first to do so? Reasons to why African nations are not willing to heed the call have to be addressed.
It has been perpetuated that Somaliland recognition will open up a ‘Pandora’s box.’ All these African tribes that currently want to break away from their states will claim separation. Apparently it is the same reason that the western nations are not comfortable to be the first. They do not want appear to be advocating for partitioning of Africa.
Although it might be a genuine concern for the west, for African countries, it is a myth. Therefore, Somaliland needs to explore the real reasons and present it to her sympathetic partners. For a start, the reluctance of African leaders to support Somaliland is due to their disposition to maintain the status quo, be it in their countries or in elsewhere. Throughout history, they have shown to be reactive to events. They have failed to show leadership on African matters, from Zimbabwe to Libya. Secondly, Somaliland is not South Sudan. In Sudan, the composition of the population is diverse and is made up of Muslims, Christians, Black Africans and Arabs. Their conflict is essentially rooted in their differences in creed and origin. So it was easy for the African Union to press for the break-up of Sudan. If setting precedence was an issue for African leaders, they would have shown it. The same sympathy is not there for Somaliland. Thirdly, the rest of Africa is waiting for the Somalia’s closest neighbours, particularly Ethiopia and Kenya to make the first move.
Ethiopia
Ethiopia has very good relationship with Somaliland and has entered trade agreements with Hargeisa. Currently, it uses the Somaliland port of Berbera as its gateway to import and export products. Also it has recently signed an agreement with Somaliland in conjunction with China to allow the Chinese firms to develop the port in order to export the Ethiopian gas to China. Although Addis Ababa government has been willing to engage with Somaliland on trade and on security, it has not been forthcoming with its support for the Somaliland recognition.
This can be explained by the complex relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia on one part and the internal Ethiopian situation on the other. Ethiopia has large Somali population who always wanted to leave Ethiopia and be part of Somalia. Their ambition to join Somalia is not as vocal as it used to be, given the conflict in Somalia, nevertheless, Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) is engaged in an armed struggle with Addis Ababa to break away from it. Also most gas deposits are found in the Somali region of Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s concern is that if it takes the first step, it will give ammunition to those who always accuse her of wanting to destroy the Somali unity.
Ethiopia’s ruling party has its internal armed opposition, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), which represents one of the biggest tribes in Ethiopia. Although the government cracks down on these groups, they still pose a significant threat to the party in power. As Ethiopia is land locked and has already fought with Eritrea, her biggest fear is the revival of the Somali nationalism and the possibility that her enemies might find a sanctuary in Somalia to wage wars against her if she is seen to be pushing for the disintegration of Somalia. Melez Zenawi’s government knows Ethiopia’s interest lies with Somaliland being recognised but they do not want to be seen supporting it publicly. They rather like to be the last.
Kenya/Djibouti
Similarly Kenya has a big Somali population and although they do no yearn for Somalia as much as the Somalis in Ethiopia, Somalia always wanted to have its lost land back. The Somali tribes in Kenya share the same roots with the Somali tribes in the south. They enjoy prominent positions in the Kenyan government and would no doubt lobby against any Kenyan move towards Somaliland recognition. Djibouti on the other hand is a different proposition. It believes its security is tied with a big strong Somalia that she can call upon when she needs and can serve as a counter weight to Ethiopian power in the Horn of Africa.
It has been said that Israel is surrounded by hostile nations. Certainly, Somaliland feels isolated at international level. Arabs do not want to support the separation of a Muslim country; the Africans have always been passengers in their own affairs and often do not want to make brave decisions as the west awaits the Africa Union to address the issue.
Conclusion
When president Obama came to Britain for a state visit and addressed the British parliament in May 2011, he claimed “…there are few nations that stand firmer, speak louder, and fight harder to defend democratic values around the world than the West.” If the world does not give immediate attention to the Somaliland recognition, the victim will be the infant democracy of Somaliland. As instability of Somalia is impacting the stable places, like Puntland, it will not be long before it reaches the Somaliland shores.
If the West hopes and waits for the African Union to face up to its responsibility, that wait may outlast the world. Somaliland government needs to present its case clearly to the West. If the obstacles facing Somaliland is one of who blinks first, the Somaliland government needs to lobby the west to pressure the African Union to recognise her or lobby the African Union to affirm to the west that they have no objection if the west makes the first move.
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Note: This informative, and mostly factual, article was originally published on Somaliland Press last week – without the map. After repeated attempts to contact the editor through its not-functional e-mail addresses, I decided to publish it here, as it has no copyright restrictions.
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Related posts:(in this blog)
* Somaliland to deport thousands of Ethiopian refugees
* Wikileaks: Ethiopia proposed ‘semi-recognition’ for Somaliland
