Highlight: The choice of a long-term successor to Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is likely to expose tensions within the ruling EPRDF and its ethnically defined sub-parties. Constant vigilance is required to prevent Ethiopia’s enemies in Eritrea and Somalia from linking up with internal armed groups such as OLF & ONLF.

The Washington based think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies(CSIS), a brief study report titled ‘Ethiopia: Assessing Risks to Instability’ and dated June 2011.

The study is part of a series that assesses the risks of instability in 10 African countries in the next decade. It is AFRICOM, the US African Command, which commissioned the study project.

The project is prompted by the recent developments in Northern Africa and Middle East, which took US officials by surprise. Thus, this study project is intended to identify potential causes of instability and to enable US  policymakers devise responses and contingency plans in advance.

However, the study cautions, it is not meant to provide a hard and fast predictions and should be treated as a ‘thought experiment’. It notes:

The intention is not to single out countries believed to be at risk of impending disaster and make judgments about how they will collapse. Few, if any, of the countries in this series are imminent risk of breakdown. All of them have coping mechanism that militate against conflict, and discussions of potential ‘worst-case scenario’ have to be viewed with this qualification in mind.

So far two papers, on Ethiopia and on Sudan, have been released.

The paper on Ethiopian is is authored by Terence Lyons, a long time commentator on Horn of African politics and a professor at George Mason University. He has served in election observation missions to Ethiopia in 1995 and 2005. In addition to his profile, it is likely that he enjoyed a wider cooperation from US diplomats and military attachés, as the study is commissioned by AFRIOCOM. Thus, despite some inaccuracies and hasty inferences observable in the paper and the author’s political bias towards EPRDF, it is likely to be informative, at least of one weighty perspective on EPRDF. With that in mind, I decided to share you the section of the paper on what may destabilize Ethiopia and how.

The papers summarizes the major points as ‘key stress points’. Those are:

• In the short to medium terms, Ethiopia is likely to remain stable but brittle. The authoritarian ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), has consolidated power across all levels of government and society, efficiently suppressing political opposition.
• The choice of a long-term successor to Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is likely to expose tensions within the ruling EPRDF and its ethnically defined sub-parties, and exacerbate friction between some of Ethiopia’s most volatile regions.
• Ethiopia faces multiple security threats, which taken alone can be contained by the military but if combined would threaten to overwhelm the state, triggering serious instability and violence. Constant vigilance is required by Ethiopia to prevent its enemies in Eritrea and Somalia from linking up with internal armed groups such as the Oromo Liberation Front and the Ogaden National Liberation Front.

Pondering on what factors could collapse EPRDF’s rule and destabilize the nation, the paper provides the following analysis. (acronyms at the bottom)

There are also a few more interesting points in the paper that I hope to present it. You may download and read the paper here – ‘Ethiopia:Assessing Risks to Instability‘ – (link).

Abbreviations = EPRDF – Ethiopian peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Party; OPDO – Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization; ANDM – Amhara Nation Democratic Movement; TPLF – Tigray Peoples’ Liberation Front; SPEDM – Southern Ethiopian Peoples’ Democratic movement; OLF – Oromo Liberation Front; ONLF – Ogaden National Liberation Front.