“Can you think of any government that purports to be a multi-party democracy, but manages to win all but two seats in the 547-seat parliament?” Jody Clarke asked the readers of Irish Times.
It was on her last Wednesday news report titled ‘Turning a blind eye to Ethiopia’s crimes against its own people’, but doesn’t describe the ‘crimes’. Apparently, the crime is the margin of EPRDF’s election win – all but two seats.
Can we imagine such a win in a multi party democracy?
Many share this question. Thus, though I believe the issue to be marginal, I felt compelled to undertake a brief survey.
Here are my findings.
[Note: Ethiopia is a republic covering 1,133, 380 sq km, Pop. 78 million; Urbanization 16%; Literacy 45.1%(2008 data)]
I. PAP in Singapore
Singapore’s ruling party, People’s Action Party (PAP), won all but 2 parliamentary seats in 2006. It was happening for twelfth time. In its 45 years rule, PAP never lost more than 2 seats. It did even won all the 84 parliamentary seats in 1980.
[Singapore is a republic of 51 Islands; Pop. 4.7M; Urbanization 100%; Literacy 95%; Major ethnic groups – Chinese 75%, Malay 14%, Indian 8%. Major religions – Folk religions 43%; Muslim 18%; Buddhist 15%. (2008 data)]
II. Kuomintang in Taiwan
In the 5 elections held for the Legislative Yuan and the National assembly from 1969-1983, opposition parties (then Youth Party and Outsiders Party) won either one or no seat.
It was on 1986, the opposition managed to seize a total of 24 seats, though Kuomintang party won for sixth time with 127 of the seats, and 6 seats went to independents. (due to its unique arrangements the number of seats up for grabs fluctuate in each election from 26 up to 157)
Of course, there were independent candidates who won as big as 14 seats in the first five elections, but they were either non-partisan or supporters of Kuomintang. For instance, of the 6 independents that won in 1975 election, only one was critical of Kuomintang policies.
[Taiwan is a republic of over 80 islands of 36,000 sq km size; Pop. 23M; Urbanization 100%; Literacy 95%; Major ethnic groups Chinese 75%, Malay 14%, Indian 8%. Major religions – Folk religions 43%; Muslim 18%; Buddhist 15%]
III. UUUC in N. Ireland
United Ulsters Union Party(UUUC) won 11 out of 12 parliamentary seats in Northern Ireland, in 1974.
[N. Ireland is part of U.K. with 13,576 square km area; Pop. 1.7M(2004 est.); 40% Catholics and 60% protestants with several different denominations(inc. Presbyterian 20% and Anglican 18%)]
IV. Liberal Party of Canada
Take the three most populated provinces of Canada.
Ontario: Liberal Party of Canada won almost all of the 103 parliamentary seats in the 1990s – i.e., 102 seats, 101 seats and 100 seats in 1993, 1997, 2000, respectively.
[Ontario is the biggest region of Canada and slightly smaller than Ethiopia covering 917, 741sq km; Pop. 12.8M(2007 est.); Urbanization 85%; Literacy 95%; About 33 ethnic groups – 24.7% identify themselves as English, while 23% as Canadian; 17.5% as Scottish; 16.5% as Irish; 11/2% as French. Major religious groupings – Protestant 34.9%; Catholic 34.7%; No Religion 16.3%. (2000 census)]
Quebec – Liberal Party won 74 out of 75 parliamentary seats in 1980. The party won by similar margin for the most part of the last century. It even won all the 75 seats in 1921.
Moreover, Liberals won 102 of the 110 provincial seats in 1973.
[Quebec is slightly larger than Ethiopia consisting 1,365,128 sq km; Pop. 8M(2007 est.); Urbanization 80%; Literacy 95%; About 20 ethnic groups – 66.2% identify themselves as Canadian while 30.8% as French. Mother tongue – 80%Francophone and 8% Anglophone (2000 census)]
British Columbia – Liberal Party won 77 out of 79 parliamentary seats in 2001.
[British Columbia is slightly smaller than Ethiopia consisting 925,186sq km; Pop. 4.5M(2007 est.); Urbanization 85%; Literacy 95%; About 40 ethnic groups – 29.6% identify themselves as English; while 20.3% as Scottish, 17.7% as Canadian, 15.2% as Irish, 13.8% as German; 10.6% as Chinese. Major religious groupings 44%Catholic, 30% protestant, 17% no religious affiliation. (2000 census)]
For the sake of brevity, I left out the smaller regions Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick where Liberal Party won every single contested seats in 1935 and 1987, respectively.
V. CDU/CSU in Germany
Take the two largest regions(Landérs) of Germany.
Bavaria (Bayern)
CDU won all the 45 directly elected parliamentary seats in 2009; same as in the 1957 and 1987 elections.
[Bavaria the largest regions in Germany covering 70,548 sq km; pop. 12.5M (2004 estimate)]
Baden-Württemberg
CSU won all but one of the directly elected parliamentary seats in 2009; same as in the 1983, 1987 and 1990 elections. CDU/CSU even won all the 37 seats in 1994.
[Baden-Württemberg is the 2nd largest region covering 35,752 sq km; pop. 11M (2004 estimate)]
*Reminiscent to EPRDF’s win in Addis, CDU/CSU barely received 60% of the total votes cast. However, German electoral system compensates the other parties. In simple terms, for e.g. in Addis Ababa, if we had the German system, MEDREK which received 36% of the total votes would be given some 9 seats, while EPRDF keeps the 22 seats it won.
*CDU (Christian Democratic Union) and CSU (Christian Social Union) are affiliate parties. The later runs only in Bavaria, which it governed for all but three years since 1946.
VI. BDP in Botswana
Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) won all but 3 parliamentary seats in the 1989 election, same as in the 1965 and 1979 elections. In fact, to date BDP enjoyed a landslide victory in all the 9 multi-party elections held since independence, in 1965. Yet, Botswana qualified as a free democracy according to the Freedom House ranking.
[Botswana is a republic half the size of Ethiopia with 581,730 sq km area; pop. 2M; Urbanization 53%(2003 data); Ethnic groups – Tswana 75%, others 25%; Religious groupings – 45%, 39% Indigenous, 11%Protestant]
VII. SWAPO in Namibia
In 2004, South West Africa People’s Organization(SWAPO) secured 24 of the 26 seats in the National Council, winning 96 of the constituencies for the regional councils losing 8 seats to the opposition UDF & NUDO. Even in the National Assembly, which is based on proportional electoral system, 64 seats are controlled by SWAPO and 13 by the opposition.
Was it a setback for Namibian democracy? At least, Freedom House doesn’t think so, it ranked the country, as always, a Free Democracy.
[Namibia is a republic with 824,269 sq km; pop. 2M; Urbanization 32%; About a dozen ethnic groups – Ovambo 50%, Kavango 9%, Herero 7%, Damara 7%, Nama 5%, Caprivian 4%, San or Khoikhoi 3%, Baster 2%.]
VIII. PLD in Dominican
Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) secured a landslide victory winning 30 seats in the 32-member Senate, according to report by the Electoral Board on May 16/2010.
This is a country that saw peaceful transition of power in 1996 and had free multi-party elections since the 1978. [Dominican is a republic covering 48, 671 sq km area; pop. 9.6M; Urbanization 60%; Literacy 88%; Ethnic groupings 73% mixed races, 16%white, 11%blacks.(2008 data)]
Is that all there is? No, definitely no. This is not a comprehensive survey. In fact, I left out many cases due to time constraint; or for want of complete data (about the concerned country’s democratic credentials and/or its electoral system); or cases which I couldn’t verify with multiple sources for accuracy.
Is this a white wash? May be. If one asks whether an overwhelming win is possible in a multi-party democracy, then this should help. However, since democratic theories don’t preclude such electoral wins, there is nothing to wash.
Comparability of the data with Ethiopia
The 8 countries are selected based on convenience. Yet, they are comparable prima facie. Of course, all are less populous, some have lesser size and some less heterogenous when compared to Ethiopia. Nonetheless,
1) all the 8 countries far exceed Ethiopia in terms of literacy, urbanization, size of middle class, and had longer experience of multi-party elections when compared to Ethiopia.
2)Lesser population and size do not necessarily make an overwhelming election win more probable. On the contrary, in smaller polities, the policy effects are more visible. Thus, it would be more difficult for the ruling party to make excuses by blaming mid-level or lower officials and implementation problems for the defects.
3)Especially provincial elections are more likely to focus on economic performance, since ruling parties can not earn votes due to national security/defense issues. The fear of political instability that comes with the change of government wouldn’t not cloud the voters’ decision.
Moreover, among the countries with 50 million to 150 Million population size, we find only about half a dozen established democracies(by western standards); such as, Japan, Germany, France, U.K, Italy. Others, such as Mexico, Turkey, Russia, Iran are Nigeria are considered not ‘liberal enough’ or interrupted by coup d’état. Easily availability of data was also a factor in my data collection.
The question of percentage?
Though there are cases cited above with even 100% win, I find percentage comparison generally tricky.
1/Which percentage are we to compare? The seats of EPRDF, 91%, or the combined win by EPRDF and associated parties, 99%? In addition, percentage can be misleading. As the number of seats decrease, even a one-seat win would look bigger in terms of percentage. For example, the ruling party of Singapore, which won 82 of 84 seats, would be said to have won 98% of the seats.
2/It needs an in-depth study to find out the combined win of the ruling party and associate parties in established democracies. One reason is that most sources state the wins of each party separately, while, in Ethiopia case, they put the combined win of EPRDF and associated parties win. For example, the 5 decades long CDU/CSU partnership is seldom mentioned in election reporting about Germany.
3/ Comparing percentages would be incomplete without comparing the number of contested seats. Presumably, the opposition parties ran in every single seats in the above cited 8 countries with much stronger party machine, but that is not the case in Ethiopia. For example, MEDREK party who fielded the largest number of candidates covered less than 80% (421 of the 547) constituencies and it was a couple of months old coalition.
So….?
Showing that there is nothing intrinsically undemocratic in the size of an election win, I expect our scholars and media rather to focus on analyzing the variables that determined the 2010 Ethiopian election, since the EU observers’ preliminary report already eliminated suspicions of vote fraud in at least 85% of the voting stations.
