Press Release
Ethiopia Economic Update – Laying the Foundation for Achieving Middle Income Status
(June 18, 2013)
Over the past decade, Ethiopia has attained high economic growth, averaging 10.7 percent per year. In 2012, Ethiopia was the 12th fastest growing economy in the World. If the country continues its historically impressive growth performance, it could potentially reach middle income status by 2025, according to the latest Ethiopia Economic Update report. This, in turn, may require an adjustment in economic policy to phase in the private sector as an additional engine of growth.
“Ethiopia has been implementing a growth strategy, which emphasizes a strong expansion of public investment. So far, this has delivered positive results. However, the public investment rate of Ethiopia is the third highest in the world, while the private investment rate is the sixth lowest. In order to sustain high economic growth, the development of a strong and vibrant private sector is essential.” says Guang Zhe Chen, World Bank Country Director for Ethiopia.”
In addition, the report argues that Ethiopia needs to make progress on two interrelated and equally important fronts: enhancing domestic savings, and resolving the bottlenecks of the trade logistics system.
Ethiopia’s savings rate is at its lowest in 30 years declining from 10 percent of GDP in 1980s to 6 percent of GDP in the 2000s. This level of savings is much lower than expected given its stage of development. In order to increase savings, the report recommends offering savers higher interest rates, expanding access to both private and public financial institutions, and taking advantage of remittances from the diaspora, estimated at half a billion dollars in 2011.
“Increasing the domestic savings rate in Ethiopia is desirable given the substantial investment proposals embedded in the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) and the limits and risks associated with external sources of savings. Ensuring that savers get a good return on their investment is a key element in a strategy to achieve this.” says Lars Christian Moller, Lead Economist and Sector Leader for Ethiopia.
When it comes to efficient trade logistics, according to the report, Ethiopia’s ranking in the World Banks’ Trade Logistics Index has slipped from 104th in 2007 to 141st in 2012. It takes an average of 42 days to import a container of goods to Ethiopia compared to 31 days for Rwanda – another landlocked country. The report recommends: developing a national strategy for trade logistics, improving selectivity of inspections to reduce cost, transit time, and corruption, and providing warehouses with better technology as possible solutions to improve trade logistics.
“There is consensus that the trade logistics system in Ethiopia can improve considerably so that Ethiopia can reap the benefits of cheap and timely shipment of goods traded across borders. There is no panacea to achieving this, however, as this is a highly complex system with numerous actors and a plethora of interdependent factors.” says Michael Geiger, the Bank’s Country Economist for Ethiopia and one of the lead authors of the report.
The Economic Update is the 2nd report launched this fiscal year and is a key element of the World Banks’ programmatic knowledge services, prepared as part of its economic policy dialogue with the Government of Ethiopia to complement the substantial volume of concessionary lending services to the country. Such Economic Update reports for Ethiopia will be prepared every six to eight months along with other tailored knowledge products in close collaboration with the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development.
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Source: World Bank
” Tsidiku bekrena be wil be konenkugn” is an Amrhaic proverb which describes the above statement from senior Bankers at World Bank, which i prefer many times to the IMF. This said, there are numerous obstacles to reaching this ‘ goal’. 1. There is no ‘ stock market’ which can allow average folks to participate in the ‘ economic boon’. there are stock exchanges in Nairobi, Cario and Lagos, why not in Ethiopia. We have a ‘ commodity exchange’ which has added fuel to hyperinflation. Commodity exchanges were meant to guarantee farmers’ income and were set up to secure their existence in Chicago, first, two hundred or more years after the first stock exchanges were established in places like New York and London. These are the ultimate mechanisms for creating wealth and saving culture. In Nairobi, the average street peddler is involved in this scheme, why not in Addis or Mekele? Only the connected ‘ few’ are enriching themselves by having cornered some of the most profitable enterprise like banking and insurance. 2, The government could have partially privatized the telephone and electric monopolies. I think the Telephone Monopoly should be sold to reputable foreign company. ( at least fifty percent of it). This will fetch some three billion or so according to HMD ( as was stated in his interview to Financial Times). What the government is getting is peanuts compare to the embezzlement prevalent in that department, Assuming some of the proceeds will be the ‘ nesting egg’ of retirees, it will lighten the govt’s pension burden. I think the govt will get much of the revenue in levying taxes on capital gains or transaction of stocks as is customary in much of the World. 3 As Addis is the capital of the Africa, some foreign banks should be allowed to operate. I wonder how the thousands of expats are living without what modern banking has to offer! These banks, should be restricted to allow the local banks to adjust to competition. They shouldn’t be allowed to raid existing banks but train their own in the first four years or so. As the so called local banks are generating most of their incomes from peddling foreign currency and not lending to viable concerns, we have to categorize them as ‘ speculators’ and not banks, in its earnest meaning. Some banks in the United States have already started giving loans to expatriates in Inida based on their credit- rating in their primary residence. Imagine an Ethiopian emigre( Ethiopians’
credit rating tops immigrants in the US) in the United States can tap tens of thousands of dollars for investment in Ethiopia for he is a ‘ good credit risk’,,,,,,, the benefit can be many times for the Nation and its many job residents.
4. We should establish the Bosaso- Berbera corridor as a viable alternate to counter Djbiouti and its intrigue. Roads can be built by a share company comprising of nationals from Ethiopia and Somaliland. The same way the American west was tamed.
5. Rule of law should be established in every aspect. civil and criminal. No favoring of ‘ underdogs’ or ‘ assertive union sharks’
6, 1% surtax on all expatriates until the Dam is built beats this ‘bond fiasco’
7. abolish ‘ the tara and korkoro’ land lease system
Of course, there are other important steps needed to get the Nation ready for the WTO accession and accelerated temp of growth. Some of these ideas can be summarized in a manner not to bore readers.
The EPRDF should loosen up the media. It is a sure bet that it will get 50% plus one in any forthcoming election, given the massive support it has with in the rural dweller. Save for those agitating tribal or religious strife, the rest should be tolerated. If it is the Chinese or South Korean model it considers, these models have private and state owned enterprise functioning, side by side. So it should curb its animosity toward the private enterprise by first setting up a transparent regulated stock market. Similarly allow productive farmers, in its initial stage to have stake in the land they till, ie give them certificate of ownership, which will get them easy financing and above all, financial security. The properties which were confiscated by the Dergue has to be returned to their owners or have them compensated, if this is not possible. This will lay the foundation for a prospering Ethiopia. While any number of my suggestions will accelerate the momentum, all need scrutiny or trial, at best to see how much more progress there will be in the Nation.
Sent from my iPhone