(By: Ziad Khalifeh)
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam — Seismic-politics and Renaissance-phobia
It would be beyond rationality that a 21st Century synthesis, resulting after more than 5000 years of common history and intercultural exchange between the nations of the Nile Basin and East Africa, would finally emerge in backward clash, threat of war, and promote further obstacles to cooperation.
Survival in a “Flat World” which has become based on interrelated and interdependent economies, mutual understanding between its various ethnicities, and alliances between entities — and on joint projects, cannot withstand gaps in this global fabric. Nor can it tolerate new conflicts between Egypt and Ethiopia, dragging the peoples of East Africa into fierce war and concomitant starvation implications.
Survival in this age necessitates working together for the benefit of all
Islamic civilization history was clear from any military confrontations with ‘Habasha’ and it was not until after the Western colonialism intervention, that one or two transient conflict incidents were recorded in the region.
It’s quite ironic that some world powers — formerly the architects of past treaties and border demarcation, and which are still intervening in all aspects of life all around the world, are not contributing proposals, advice nor technical supervision and support concerning such critical situations presently at play in the Nile River basin. Instead, they are watching while their regional proxies and agents deliver speeches and launch rhetorical threats on their behalf.
Obviously, the gradual increase in demand for energy, water, food, industry, security is accelerating – I don’t think that the Nile River would still be the exclusive gift of Egypt, or the only lifeblood tribute to Egypt and East Africa, at the end. New solutions should be found.
East Africa population could exceed 760 million people by 2030 (currently it is 375 million) – while Egypt’s population could exceed 140 million by 2030.
Safety of future Nile Dams
In this present moment, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is the center of focus and the core of serious implications which could have devastating implications and would affect the life of generations to come in the future.
No one denies that this project is objectively controversial, and there are real concerns which should be technically and thoroughly reviewed by highly professional experts, the topmost critical hazard: the safety of the Nile dams, chances of seismic activity, and possibility of collapse leading to flooding huge areas with 63 billion tons of reservoir water.
For these worries and reasons, the late Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi suggested the formation of The International Panel of Experts upon which its recommendations, the three involved countries, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, would cooperate to fulfill.
The International Panel of Experts was accordingly formed and delivered its report to the three governments concerned on the 1st of June 2013. The IPE is merely a consultancy team, and its recommendations are not obligatory: the responsibility and decision making, technical issues and construction on the ground, and the ethical responsibility towards their peoples, are solely left for these governments.
On The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam — The IPE Report: between objective findings and subjective politics
Since the “Report” was prepared and delivered to governments, and not to public media, it has become clear that each country has selected from the Report what suits its plans and agendas. But while announcing to the public what have been selected, one can perceive filtered objective conclusions that are most important and have significant assessment value, apart from the sound and fury raged by this person or that political party.
The general impression is that the Dam would not cause significant harm on both of the lower riparian countries.
Of these objective findings are these following official statements:
Ethiopia; “The Panel’s report indicates that the design of the GERD has been based on international standards and principles and that the Dam offers high benefit for all the three countries and would not cause significant harm on both of the lower riparian countries.”
“The panel which appreciated the initiative Ethiopia was taking for its establishment has also suggested extra impact assessment possibilities and proposed ideas with a view to help the three basin countries’ benefit better from the Dam.”
Egypt; “Ethiopian studies do not show quantities specification for neither benefits nor harms. Studies and data delivered by Ethiopia was not enough qualifying for a huge project like this dam. Lack of accurate and advanced simulation.”
“The report recommended further studies and research concerning the economic, social, dam safety, water revenues, and environmental implications.”
Sudan; “the diversion of the Blue Nile’s course by Ethiopia as part of a grand Dam construction is routine action that will not affect the river flow. Similar action was cited during the construction of the Meroe, Setit and Upper Atbara Dams.”
“the diversion will not impact the river flow.”
“the panel carried out its task as per the terms of reference accepted by the three countries. Consultations between the three governments will continue to follow up on the implementation of the findings of the committee.”
Saudi Arabia; “The Grand Renaissance dam has its capacity of flood waters reaching more than 70 billion cubic meters of water, and is located at an altitude of 700 meters and if it collapsed then Khartoum will drown completely and the impact will even reach the Aswan Dam,” the Saudi deputy defense minister Khalid Bin Sultan said at the meetings of the Arab Water Council in Cairo.”
Of all the above-mentioned, the solutions and alternatives within the context of the inevitable necessity for creating new alternatives facing increasingly growing populations in East Africa, only the issue of dam safety and chances of collapse qualifies as a critical hazard which all countries must work through diligently and thoroughly.
Death by Water
Seismic activity is real threat which has caused dam failure and large scale catastrophic consequences in some countries. The most notable, and still up to this date scientifically argued, is the collapse of Zipingpu dam in China back in 2004.
A massive 7.9 magnitude earthquake occurred near the dam and caused the death of 85,000 people and swept villages away with floodwater. Scientists argue that the earthquake may have been caused by the dam, since there is possibility that the weight of water in the reservoir behind the dam which contained 315,000,000 tons of water, caused seismic activity which escalated to an earthquake. Other dam failures in other countries also occur for various reasons.
As far as the Grand Renaissance Dam (gravity concrete dam) is concerned, the water reservoir will contain 63,000,000,000 cubic meters, which is much more quantity than that of the Zipingpu.
Apparently, the geography in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia where the dam is under construction is different from that in China, and the density of inhabitants per kilometre in the area downstream is much more less than that in China; but this hazard opens wide gates from which many claims would simply enter and engage to magnify the debate. The first to enter was the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with the statement by the Saudi deputy defense minister Khalid Bin Sultan. Many others will follow.
In my view, this is the most essential detail which all parties must evaluate.
* Is it possible a collapse might occur?
* If such collapse would occur (God Forbid), what is the actual amount of water which would abruptly flow downstream and what is the area of land and distances that water would cover?
* A simulation of such disaster should be performed by computers to great precision. Is there possibility to create series of reservoirs with less water content so that any damage would be minimized?
Sometimes, vital needs overcome conservatism. Nuclear plants are good example on this context, the Chernobyl disaster is one of them, and dangers of nuclear plant core meltdown have equal threats, and even greater since released radioactive particles are carried by wind, reach destinations thousands of kilometres away, and remain active for thousands of years to come.
Collective Altruism
When millions of Ethiopian middle income individuals, and other wealthy ones, donate money (birr) from their pockets in order to accomplish this project and see their collective dream come true, after all countries turned their shoulders to their motherland, this becomes a demonstration of heroic and rare, modern example of humanism and accomplishment.
People will be working to diminish poverty, expand agricultural projects, developing industrial projects, raising the standards of living of each and every individual. I don’t think it is either ethical nor acceptable to confront those people, or to place obstacles in their way toward renaissance, as long as no real threats or significant harm on neighboring countries exists.
Egypt and Sudan should pursue other alternative water and energy sources in addition to their future mutually-agreed-upon share of the Nile water. Solar Energy, Nuclear Energy, Gas Energy, water desalination plants, groundwater utilizing (in Al Qantara, and other huge reserves which Dr. Farouk Al Baz has recommended), and other means to insure satisfaction of the needs of the growing population in Egypt.
Escalation, or going to war with Ethiopia, won’t bring progress for any party — ultimately, it is worse than any scenario brought by the dam.
Sudan can take a similar stance, and ultimately, benefit from the Ethiopian projects as well.
The three countries, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, along with the other East African countries, in the final analysis, must SUCCEED TOGETHER.
*************
* Originally published on the U.A.E. based media “Arabian Gazette”, on June 6, 2013, titled “Nile dams – Egypt, Ethiopia, look for safe ground”, authored by Ziad Khalifeh.
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An analytic report every Egyptian, Ethiopian & Sudanees should should not miss. It is well balanced, fair, well research, brilliant & human report. As I am journalist, I got a lesson from it. My gratitude for Zaid (Arabian Gazette UAE) and Daniel for posting it as widening z access.
Provided that I have an opinion or question that hold my mind with sadness & anger.
Who is the hell is Egypt to mouthful threaten the great nation Ethiopia? Why is no government, international organisations or media strongly condom its exposed secret meeting to sabotage the construction than compromising with a modest word ‘negotiation’ or ‘mutual benefit’. Why do should Egypt’s benefit underlind as determining factor while the dam is being constructed by all ethiopians that extends from poor to private company owners with no coin contribution from Egypt. What should be considered is ‘no harm’ on downstream countries and a’ benefit-meanwhile’as secondary option.
I think it is too much for Egypt. If at all Ethiopia shall close the Egypt Embassy. They are of no use at critical situation except deploying water engineer spies over Ethiopian water resources.
I think Ethiopia shall revise its plan to incorporate intensive irrigation at GERD. Being that much room to Egypt doesn’t bring appreciation but undermining. they think we Ethiopians hold only water. We hold also gun. We are architects of war far better than them. We will assist our sister Sudan from any possible harm from Egypt let alone our land.
Careful Ethiopia is a Blessed nation both by the Holy Q’uran and Holy Bible unlike Egypt. Every muslim is well aware how Egypt responds when prophet Mohammed sent a messenger to recognize Islam and being hit by Jihad unlike Ethiopia. It had been a back up for Islam by the time Prophet Mohammed had endangered by every Middle East countries. For its ally, The Prophet waive only Ethiopia from every countries around. He said do not touch ‘Habesha’. Because Ethiopia had been always reasonable and do not ignite war itself.
Therefore, do dare to touch Ethiopia as Prophet Mohammed warns. If not …
Moges Hiluf
dear ziad ,our planet needs many peaples who thinks like you.i am so impressed in your outstanding thought.this is what we ethiopians saying from the very begining. win win approch or mutual benfit colloburation is fit to three countries.otherwise we are standby to gard our dam by paying any scrifice it needs;just egyptian do for nasir dam
What does this mean “Egypt should know that there are low tech ways of turning the Nile into a series of inland lakes by blasting the Nile gorge at several strategic points and keep 90% of its waters for internal development?”
The issue of the Renaissance dam and the recent tantrums of the government of Egypt is a symptomatic expression and a clash of the frustrations of the Islamist government of Mohammed Morsi which is loosing traction and disillusionment and failure of governance among Egyptians and the exercise of the rights of use of natural resources that the burgeoning Ethiopian population and economic needs in the new millennium. Egypt once a titan of the Arabic world has steadily been declining in influence and might over several decades and the nadir of its downward trajectory has been signed and sealed by it’s new government. Morsi is following up on Sadat’s declaration that Egypt should have a mighty army for one reason only and that it is not Israel or the West But the Nile. These threats are therefore not new. But Egypt is a paper tiger and does not have the unity of resolve to wage a pointless war that it is going to loose over the dam. Egypt should also not forget that people who live in glass houses should not throw stones and that it has prime targets that can have a much more devastating effect on it than it’s theoretical war on the dam. It is obvious that the Renaissance dam has become the uniting nexus of all Ethiopians of a variety of political and ethnic inclinations and has thus become the heart beat of the nation. Other Arab states like Saudi Arabia have been chirping the Egyptian hysteria. There is no love lost between these fellow travelers under ordinary circumstances. They all see Ethiopia as a regional threat economic threat to their oil based dominance and the potential of Ethiopia to be an impending oil producer and major competitor. They would like Ethiopia to remain an agrarian provider of cheap meat and agricultural produce that they can manipulate with bling. The Renaissance dam is not just a dam over the Nile but a philosophical touchstone that galvanizes the aspirations and hopes of not just the Ethiopian people but also of the other riparian states who have been saddled by the left-overs of ravenous colonial deeds and unfair concessions which are not worth the paper they were written on. Egypt should know that there are low tech ways of turning the Nile into a series of inland lakes by blasting the Nile gorge at several strategic points and keep 90% of its waters for internal development.
My apologies to the engineers involved in building the Renaissance Dam. In my comment I erroneously wrote that “I have reason to doubt that” they are building a safe dam when of course I wanted to state my confidence in them.
I agree with Ziad that dam safety is extremely important in this case. All engineers involved in building the Renaissance Dam must ensure that the dam is built to last in order to guarantee the safety of residents of Khartum and the investment of the Ethiopian people (personally I’ve reason to doubt that). But I would like to point out some factual errors in his article: One, the Zipingpu Dam did not collapse as he said though severe cracks were identified. Secondly, there is a significant difference between these two dams in their proximity to the geological fault lines. The Zipingpu Dam was built within a couple of miles of a major fault line while the Renaissance Dam is at least hundreds of miles away from the closest fault lines in the Rift Valley or the Red Sea.
FH.
viva Ethiopia! No forces stop you from development live alone toothless pharos who played all negative roles in your history; THE GAME IS CHANGED NOW, every single steps costing egypt unaccountably now onward, surely, every one will witness their shame sooner or latter.
Final word ,Please Egypt,Sudan and Ethiopia open a big office for Economic Integration and Cooperation.This will make Egyptians richer,Sudanese richer and also Ethiopians richer.It is possible but need attitude change.Yes,we can has to be slogan to borrow from our Kenyan brother Mr.Obama.
An appeal to all Eritreans in Eritrea and abroad- What did you get from Egypt except ELF leaders who were living lavish life.As to the EPLF you know who supported you- Ethiopian democrats,South Yemen,Sudan and so on.How on Earth the Eritrean government can support Nile Colonial Treaty.I think if our brother Esays is mentally sick he has to retire and give power to some other intelligent Eritrean not Tigrean origin like Esays.Because, this hybrids have complex problems.I am true Eritrean from the Eritrean soil and psychology,he who also knows his root relations with Ethiopia or Abyssinia.Eritrea will benefit more from the IGAD market instead of dreaming support of Egypt.You get nothing from Egypt.The Truth is Ethiopia is rising,Africa is rising ,No body can stop this.As to Egypt Mr.Mursi is also intelligent enough to go against the historical tide.Yes,it is not easy with Egyptian public regarding Nile due to the wrong orientations by Sadat ,Mubarak and other leaders.But, I hope Mr.Mursi will get the fine tune to pass this stage.
Egypt is behaving like a child.They built Aswan by covering the historic Nubian civilization.Our Sudanese brothers were not capable to resist due to different agendas at home.But,it is not fair even if the country can not oppose civilized work has to be done.As to the issue of Earthquake,a shooting star hitting the Earth is also a possibility but rare possibility.So,it is not fair to apply these criteria to Ethiopian dam.Who told you that Ethiopia can be rich country.It was one of the three TOP CIVILIZATIONS.The problem is thanks to the Egyptian opposition that we are not united enough and some people get bribed.This is the problem of the Eritrean political leaders,this is the problem of the Ogden liberation leaders and others.Red sea coast and Blue Nile belonged to Ethiopia.But step by step Ethiopia lost the Red Coast and was not able to get funding from World Bank and others for Blue Nile Projects.Solution all Ethiopians including Eritrea,Sudan ,Djibouti and Somalia come together and build a strong Sub region .IGAD is also possible to consolidate.Message to Eritrean president,please come closer to Ethiopia as the Benshangul Liberation Front has done this weak.
The article is reasonable enough.Ethiopia has to employ all the best dam building practices using all best global expertise.But,for this it would be helpful to support Ethiopia in all aspects and not sabotaging suggestions as aired by some oppositions of Egypt.As to the volume of water this amount of water is less than that of Aswan.Yes,mitigation ,simulations and others possible should be done.It is more helpful for Ethiopia.But for heaven sake we are fade up of the Egyptian stupidity .They have to understand that the Nile belongs to all Riparian countries.The problem is also of some big powers.Please USA and Russian give a call to Mursi and tell him that he should cooperatively discuss this issue and tell his people the truth that the Dam is a Dam like Aswan.