Renaissance Dam to start "pre-generation work" by mid-2014

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• hi daniel

  this is the translation of an interview of member of tripartite commission. he just making some funny comment which violate the agreement which says any member should not disclose the the out come of the report before it become official.

  Admitted to Dr. Alaa al-Zawahiri, a member of the Trilateral Commission, to assess the dam Renaissance Ethiopian, one of the experts in the field of Hydraulics and Irrigation - that there was no information from the Ethiopian side, about the damage that Cspbha dam on Egypt, stressing that the Addis Ababa handed over construction of the dam for the Italian company «turnkey ».

  He stressed, in his interview to Al-Masry Al-Youm, that in the case of construction of the dam will increase the evaporation of water dam higher by an estimated 5 billion cubic meters annually .. The text of the interview:

  ■ What about the concerns of the Committee of the Ethiopian construction of the dam? Why stuck to Ethiopia to form a committee as long as they embark on the construction of the dam? What do you think in the diplomatic efforts which recently announced?

  - The most important thing raised doubts is the lack of information about the construction of the dam, as well as attributed to one of the companies of the Italian builders 'Salini' direct order system 'turnkey', and this does not happen in this kind of dams. Add to that Ethiopia play on the time factor to put Egypt and Sudan with a fait accompli, although the Commission has not finished its work yet, but it continues to build the dam, and announced that it has already ended than 18% of its scheduled completion in 2015, as the Declaration of Ethiopia recently change the course of the Nile ushered in the construction of dam in September - evidence that they force in the establishment of the dam, according to the scheme, without any waiting for the results of the Technical Committee, in the case of synchronized refill with a flood of lower than average, the effects would be disastrous, as it is expected inability Egypt to exchange their share of the water deficit maximum of up to 34% of the quota, including an estimated 19 billion and a deficit of average estimated 20% share of an estimated 11 billion cubic meters for the duration of filling, which was estimated at 6 years, and from my point of view, we must direct negotiations now, it is possible to be brought as a result, in my view, reducing the height of the dam is the most important, especially that the feasibility study of the dam is good and yield electricity is estimated at 33%, and 60 billion cubic meters in the dam lake is given one third of the energy projected to generate electricity, while the $ 14 billion and rising 90 meters generate two-thirds of electricity, and therefore the dam is economic, and created a political decision came, and his presence on the border confirms this.

  ■ what axes negotiate with Ethiopians? Does that will lead to a deficit in the production of hydroelectric power? Is it possible that Israel intervene in the negotiations?

  - Yes, it will lead to a deficit in the production of hydroelectric power from the High Dam in the range of 40% for a period of 6 years. I repeat that it does not have to negotiate with Ethiopia on several points, and also do not need to negotiate with South Sudan, where it is possible to negotiate with Ethiopia to draw water from the basin Sobat and provide 4 billion and negotiate with South Sudan to attract 9 billion from the swamps, I do not think so, because it is an option Probably not accepted by Egypt and Sudan, with the recognition that Israel has the role of Lloyd in the file, and it has an agenda, and also add that America has an agenda, and China and some Arab countries have also played a role and must get to her, and offer the perspective of Egypt clearly.

  ■ Some talked about that the solution lies in the arrival of the Nile water to Israel through the Al-Salam Canal in Sinai?

  - We've heard these theses in the form of rumors, where he confirmed some of the water problems will be solved if we sent billion cubic meters, one for Israel, this internationally forbidden outside the Nile basin, and this applies to the Congo River, which we can not apply it it and turn its course for the benefit of Egypt waters, as Some claimed.

  ■ What is the size of a direct impact on the High Dam Lake? Will there be damage to agricultural land? Is if the building foundations can change the height of the dam? And what if it fails to negotiate with the Ethiopians?

  - In case of filling in the years Medium flood the High Dam Lake will be depleted, and will reduce the depth of the water by more than 15 meters, ie will attributed to the 159 meters, due to the fact that storage in Lake Nasser Qrnia the impact of any pattern of withdrawing from the revenue the river have cumulatively ie drag effect may not be noticeable at the time, and its effect will appear suddenly when the compound strategic inventory depletion of the lake during the drought period, and therefore the results will be severe harm if subsequent periods of drought came to fill the dam. Especially if we know that each of 4 billion cubic meters a deficit of Nile water equivalent Poire million acres Agricultural, and will be the displacement of 2 million households, will lose 12% of agricultural production, the food gap will increase by 5 billion pounds, is expected to increase water pollution, salinity and deficit in the socket potable water, due to low water levels and decreasing severe in the Nile cruises and increasing seawater intrusion in the Delta with groundwater and degradation of water quality in the northern lakes, as well as social problems associated with this, but what was at the site of the dam is the preparatory work, which was created Bridge before the dam , and began drilling operations and places the foundations settlement, was the work of sensors and create tunnels groups to change the course of the dam, which is expected to be in September, and it is possible that the height of the dam is reduced to 90 meters.

  ■ Can the Ethiopian change the course of the river in flood months?
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  - This is not possible scientifically and practically, especially in the months of June, July and August, a month flood, will begin in September diversion of the river and work on the foundations after the expiration of the flood, and I expect the mediation of the countries of ties with Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, and the United States are eligible for it.

  ■ There were reports of Ethiopian reduce dam evaporation rate to meet higher. What is the truth?

  - This incorrect assumption, on the contrary, will increase the evaporation rate is estimated at 5 billion cubic meters a year at least, according to our studies.

  ■ if you pass a fill dam with minimum losses, as some officials said, Are there any negative effects for the operation of the dam?

  - Possibility of passing a refill losses a few - low probability, and for the effects of operational we emphasize that operational principles of the dam, which depends on maximizing the hydroelectric power produced inconsistent for example, in the period of flooding less than average with what you need countries located behind the dam, which Egypt and Sudan, where they will be stored to raise the water attributed to generate electricity and reduce outgoing from behind the dam, and this threatens to happen shortage in water supply.

  ■ you have to simulate the experience Renaissance Dam, what the fact that experience?

  - It is well known technically and internationally Upon completion of the design of dams and before implementation - the work of a simulation of the collapse of the dam and determine the degree of risk anticipated, so as to be considered one of the main determinants of the decision to implement or not, according to the vision of His resolution, are simulated using a set of programs internationally recognized, and vary accuracy results depending on the assumptions used in each program.

  ■ What assumptions you have made to simulate the Renaissance Dam?

  - We used the program takes into account the dynamics of the collapse and changed with the times, for the synthesis of the tidal wave caused by the collapse of the dam until Khartoum, passing Bsdy Sennar and Roseires, and was فرضياتنا consists of a model to fill up 145 m and the storage size is estimated at 74 billion cubic meters of fill concrete and another Rdmy, Lakeside Assistant vain models Roseires Sennar and in the case of the whole of the lake is full.

  ■ What about the most important results of your experience?

  - The results showed that Khartoum will be affected significantly and catastrophic result of the collapse of the dam Renaissance, where would lead to the collapse of stroma Roseires and Sennar along the Merowe dam located inside Sudanese territory, so the 167 billion cubic meters - the maximum disposal of water - will arrive from the dam in case of collapse to bridge the Roseires in 8 hours and a half and Stdmrh and arrive to fill Sennar in the day and a half, and will arrive in Khartoum four and a half days, and will reach the Merowe dam in 12 days and a third, and will arrive to fill higher after 18 days and a third, and this certainly will cause the elimination of the city of Khartoum, and destroys of Roseires and Sennar dams and Meroe in the Sudan