The dynamism of a change movement depends on the nature of the change. The birth of change can emanate from uni-polarity, duality, integration or transcendence.
A change that emanates from uni-polarity fails when it reaches its level of extremity. A change that emanates from duality fails when the other opposite succeeds. A change that emanates from integration and transcendence fails if it can have the properties of integration and transcendence.
The Oromo elite movement emanates from duality. The current Oromo elite movement of struggle is born of reaction to the current status quo set by the TPLF dominated EPRDF. The current Oromo movement is resisting to the mind dominated by the way of thinking of EPRDF.
First, there is a deep shame and frustration among the Oromo elite since it thinks it did not play a significant role in the governance and leadership of Ethiopia for the last centuries. There is strong frustration and reaction towards those who oppressed the Oromo people for the last century.
Second, the movement resists being dependent on TPLF. OPDO is born from the spirit of dependency on TPLF. So far OPDO has not played a critical role in the development of EPRDF. Most of the leaders of OPDO are developed inorganically through the nourishment of TPLF and ANDM. There is a deep emotion of inferiority and worthlessness.
Third, the Oromo elite is confused by the conflict between its inherent culture which encourages harmony, vitality and unification and the dominant political culture in Ethiopia which encourages confrontation, conceptualization and abstraction.
These factors have created a deep emptiness in the minds of the Oromo elite. The Oromo elite is reacting to the deep emptiness by resisting the mind of domination which is represented these days by TPLF. All the evils are represented by TPLF. The dualities that are driving the Oromo elite minds are independence and TPLF domination. The objective of the struggle is to defeat TPLF domination and win independence.
In such change which organizes itself around dualities, the struggle is win-lose. Win-win is not a possibility. In this struggle, success means the defeat of TPLF and domination by the Oromo elite. The dynamism of the change movement is determined by the conflicts between the two dualities.
So far the Oromo elite have been claiming successes. It claims that it has unified the people of Oromo against the TPLF domination. It claims that it has created an independent OPDO which can decide by itself. It claims that it has organized a security force that works for the people. It claimed that it has organized Qerroo movement that can be mobilized to conduct any operation. It claimed that it has pushed EPRDF to make reforms in the defense and security structure of the country. And now it is claiming that a member of OPDO will be the prime minister of the country.
All these claims are supposed to be indicators of independence of the Oromo elite. Now, the movement has reached its turning point since the state of emergency can disrupt the current power dynamics. The dynamism of the change is swinging to the duality represented by TPLF.
The Oromo elite, especially Jawar group and OPDO, have tried all it can to prevent the implementation of the state of emergency. Furthermore, the chance of Abiy Ahmed (Phd) becoming prime minister is zero. The reform that was focused on the defense and security structure has failed since Hailemariam Desalegn, the one who was leading the reform in alignment to the OPDO’s illusioned elite, has been removed.
Based on the state of emergency, the federal security forces will dismantle the Qeerro and the regional security forces that were working against the constitution. A new OPDO will emerge through the state of emergency. The current psychopathic leadership will disappear or will hibernate. This is clearly a blow and a shock to the illusioned Oromo elite that was claiming we are in the post-TPLF era. This point is the start of the declining of the illusioned fantasy movement.
The futurity of the current Oromo elite movement depends on factors such as importance of the objective, support of the foreign power, commitment of the leaders of the movement, and consciousness of the elite.
With regards to the first factor, even though there is no consolidated objective with regards to the movement, if the objective of the movement is connected to the interest of the Oromo people, such as the interest for self decision, interest for becoming economically independent, interest for learning and developing,… the struggle will become stronger as time goes on and finally it will bring fruits. But if the movement’s objective is created by the elite in order to attain their selfish interest, the current movement will be disrupted through the state of emergency. And it will be recorded as one of the failures of the Oromo elite like the movement of OLF.
The second factor is the support of the foreign power. If the foreign powers are determined to topple the current state and implant a system that can be remotely controlled by them and they have the power to achieve that, there is high probability this movement can be a success story.
The third factor is commitment of the leaders of the movement. If the leaders have an objective and mission that transcends their minor inferiority complex selfish interest, they can have a commitment and resilience that can enable the movement succeed. If the leaders are imprisoned in their emotion of shame and frustration, they can be easily defeated.
Another critical factor is the consciousness of the elite. Currently, the elite’s state of mind is characterized by external locus of control, extreme defensiveness, emotionality, being manipulated by psychopaths, and repression of shame and frustration. The elite has succeeded in externalizing all of its inner gaps to an illusionary power called “TPLF”. The elite has tried to unify itself in reaction to the domination from the minds represented by TPLF. The elite has started living in illusion and do not have the courage to self-reflect. If there is a problem, the problem is externalized to the illusionary construct.
This has created a situation where psychopaths that identify with the emotion of the elite can play any game. The psychopaths are deceiving the elite. Dialogue and discussion are discouraged. Emotion has prevailed. This has created a situation where the elite is alienated from the external environment and is not getting the right feedback that can help the movement transform. If the current consciousness which is characterized by external locus of control, extreme defensiveness and illusion is not transformed to a state characterized by self-reflection, internal locus of control and dialogue, the movement will make a suicide.
There are some probable scenarios with regards to the current movement of the Oromo elite. The worst-case scenario is that the political struggle within EPRDF and the state of emergency will disrupt the current dynamism of the struggle. The struggle will fail and it will be recorded as representation of shame and frustration. OPDO will emerge as the old OPDO that depends on others for its existence. OPDO will continue to be the strong leader in Oromia. The probability of this will be very high if commitment of the leaders is self-centered and the consciousness is not transformed.
The other scenario is that the current Oromo elite movement succeeds and topples the TPLF-dominated system. This can boost the confidence of the Oromo elite and emerge political order. This scenario is only possible if the current leadership decides to swiftly act against the state of emergency and do everything possible to fail the state of emergency.
Who wins is going to be decided in the first two weeks of the state of emergency. During the two weeks, the federal security forces will dismantle the confidence of the elite and the Qerroo if there is not swift action against them.
If this opportunity is missed, there will be another chance of winning. This movement will be thwarted or will be transcended. This is why Qeeroo’s courageous action is expected during the first weeks of the implementation of the state of emergency.
Another scenario is that the current movement will be transcended into more conscious movement that is characterized by internal locus of control, high level of self-reflection , harmony and conceptualization. This can only happen if the opposition parties who have higher consciousness among the Oromo elite take the lead. This scenario can enable the Oromo elite build a developmental capability and play a critical role in the next generation governance of the country in harmony with those that transcend the current dualities.