Kenyans go the polls on Monday, March 4th, in the first general election since the December 2007 vote and subsequent violence. They will be voting for a president, for the members of parliament and senators for the first bicameral legislature since 1966, as well as county governors and members of the newly formed county assembly. This is the first time that Kenyans will vote for county governors and senators so many more positions are available at local level. Under the new Constitution, the post of Prime Minister will be abolished. President Mwai Kibaki is not seeking re-election, but Prime Minister Raila Odinga who lost to President Kibaki in 2007, along with the two deputy prime ministers, Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi who was briefly vice-president under President Moi, are candidates as are Muhamed Abduba Dida, a former teacher; Martha Karua, ex-justice minister and the only female candidate; Peter Kenneth, MP, a former banker and lawyer; James ole Kiyiapi , an ex-civil servant and academic; and Paul Muite, a lawyer and veteran opposition politician.
The three main candidates are Mr. Odinga, (Luo), and the two deputy prime ministers, Mr. Kenyatta (Kikuyu), and Mr. Mudavadi, (Luhya). Mr. Odinga and Mr. Kenyatta are widely considered as the front-runners and are expected to get the majority of the votes. Mr. Kenyatta stood for the presidency in 2002 but lost to his fellow Kikuyu, President Kibaki. Mr. Odinga is making his third bid for the presidency.
The election campaigning was complicated by the fact until this week it was assumed that that a month after the voting, and immediately after a possible run-off vote, if one was required, Uhuru Kenyatta would have to face trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. He and his running mate, William Ruto, have both been indicted by the Court over the post 2007 election violence. Both deny all the charges.
The issue of the ICC indictment has been the major issue of the campaign overshadowing unemployment, development, improving social services or even terrorism –Al-Shabaab issued a threat of further action in Kenya this week. There has been widespread condemnation of the court from the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin groups. Mr Kenyatta is an ethnic Kikuyu while Mr Ruto is Kalenjin. The case has also led to comments from other countries: “Choices have consequences,” US Assistant Secretary of State for African affairs, and former US Ambassador to Kenya, Johnnie Carson, told Kenyans without elaborating, but a number of diplomats in Kenya have said that it would only be possible to have limited contact with those indicted by the ICC. These diplomatic concerns about the consequences of electing someone under ICC indictment have led to Mr. Kenyatta’s supporters complaining of “neo-colonial western interference” and newspaper columnists accusing diplomats of behaving with “colonial arrogance”.
Although all presidential candidates have promised to concede defeat if they fail to win, and there have been serious efforts to prevent any hate speech, campaign rallies have also been monitored for the use of divisive language and the independent Media Council has been monitoring dozens of radio stations, TV channels and newspapers to make sure no "retrogressive utterances" are made. Mobile phones, much used to spread violence in 2007-8, are now subject to tight guidelines. Political text messages have to be in English or Swahili and campaign text messages vetted by mobile service operators. However, there is concern that the results may still lead to another outbreak of ethnic violence. Security forces are being deployed into high risk areas and widespread calls for Kenyans to rise above the politics of ethnicity. President Obama sent a video message to underline that the polls will be a moment for the people of Kenya to come together.
In the post-2007 election violence 1,300 people died and tens of thousands were displaced. Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan helped to mediate between the leaders of the two main political parties, the Orange Democratic Movement of Raila Odinga and the Party of National Unity of Mwai Kibaki. Subsequently a referendum on a new constitution in August 2010, devolving power and establishing a bill of rights, had overwhelming support. A Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission was set up three years ago but it has yet to release its findings and recommendations.
The winning candidate needs to get more than 50% of the total votes and at least 25% of votes in half of the 47 counties in the country – and over 14 million people have registered to vote. If there is a clear winner, he will be sworn in on April 10th; if there is no clear winner, a run-off vote will take place on April 11th. The official results of Monday’s vote will be announced by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission within a week, though the Supreme Court has the final decision on the presidential result. There will be observers from the European Union, the US and other African countries, and a 20 member mission from IGAD. This week the IGAD Council of Ministers sent a delegation headed by Dr. Tedros Adhanom, Foreign Minister of Ethiopia, the Chair of IGAD’s Council of Ministers on a ‘goodwill mission’ in support of peaceful elections and show “the region’s solidarity with the government and people of Kenya". Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda are the current members of IGAD.
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* Originally published on A Week in the Horn – March 1, 2013 issue, titled “Kenya goes to the polls on Monday”. Items from A Week in the Horn are re-published here with a permission to do so.
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