After weeks of confusion on whether Ethiopia intend to invade Eritrea, the Ministry of Foreign affairs made a clarifying statement. The weekly press release published on Friday notes that Ethiopia has given up on ‘the passive approach it has pursued in the past in dealing with the regime in Asmara’, thus ‘decided to carry out a more active policy, taking measured action against Eritrea’s activities.’
Yet, the new approach ‘will involve using all means at Ethiopia’s disposal to force the government of Eritrea to change its ways or failing this to change the government.’
The statement listed a three-layered approach to the Eritrean regime. While the first approach is stepping up ‘diplomatic efforts to get the international community to act decisively about Eritrea…[and making] specific efforts in both IGAD and the AU’, the other two approaches are increased assistance to ‘any Eritrean organization which has the interest of the peoples of Eritrea as its objective’ and ‘a proportionate response to any and every act by the regime in Asmara.’
The statement explains the two approaches as follows:
The other major area where Ethiopia will further strengthen its activity is in supporting Eritreans in their campaign to change the government. In the past, Ethiopia has given refuge to some opposition groups and some limited support to the Eritrean resistance as well as providing refuge to those who have managed to escape. Now support to the opposition will be strengthened further, demonstrating Ethiopia’s enduring support for the cause of the Eritrean people and its resolve to bring about change in the behavior of the regime in Asmara. The government of Ethiopia is willing to support and work with any Eritrean organization which has the interest of the peoples of Eritrea as its objective.
At the same time, the Ethiopian government will also be prepared to stand up to any challenge emanating from Eritrea, directly or indirectly. For Ethiopia, the international community has never been its last line of defense against Eritrea’s destabilization. As Prime Minister Meles recently made clear, in light of Eritrea’s continuing nefarious campaigns, Ethiopia will continue to work to force the regime to change its policies or failing that it will be prepared to change the government itself through any means at its disposal. In this context, Ethiopian actions will include a proportionate response to any and every act by the regime in Asmara. No act of aggression by the government of President Isaias will be left unanswered. [Emphasis mine]
It is to be recalled that Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said that Eritrea will have to change its policies or its government, in a press conference last March. Though his statement left many wondering whether he intends to invade Eritrea, his Public Mobilization and Participation Advisor, Minister Redwan Hussein, told Walta Information Center shortly after that Ethiopia will not invaded Eritrea except in response to a full scale war.
The Ethiopian government intensified its rhetoric after the failed Eritrea-sponsored terror attack during an African Union summit last January. Though the latest statement by the Ministry doesn’t directly mention that incident, it notes:
[The destabilizing] efforts which have been repeatedly foiled by Ethiopia may not constitute a major existential threat, but the fact that they demonstrate continuous efforts at work in the mind of Eritrea’s leader makes it impossible to dismiss them offhand as no more than mere irritants better dealt with through regular security measures. It is an insidious approach that uses a dangerous mixture: of relentless media campaigns, economic sabotage and downright terrorism. If left unchecked these could eventually cause significant harm to Ethiopia’s national interests. It is in the light of this threat that the government of Ethiopia recently announced a change of policy towards Eritrea’s repeated acts of destabilization.
The statement concluded warning the Asmaran regime saying: ‘This is a reluctant decision but it is borne out of the government’s responsibility to protect its people and to maintain the stability and peace of the country. The regime in Asmara might well be advised to take the Prime Minister’s remarks seriously.’
Read below the text of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement issued on Friday.
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Ethiopia’s policy on Eritrea
Ethiopia has always stated that it does not have the slightest intention to go to war with Eritrea and all the evidence supports this contention. The 1998 war, of course, was the result of the PFDJ government’s persistent ambition to dictate terms to others by force. After its successful defense against Eritrean aggression in 2000, Ethiopia actively sought a workable arrangement to normalize relations and to find amicable solutions to any of the differences that might exist between the two countries. It has continued to do so ever since. The Eritrean leader’s response has been remarkably consistent, prevaricating over the idea and at the same time exerting continuous efforts to sabotage Ethiopia’s development and its role in the region.
In fact, the reason why the regime in Asmara isn’t willing to engage in dialogue is very clear. Among other things, dialogue would presuppose detailing any issues that stand in the way of normalized relations with Ethiopia. That would open a floodgate of internal criticism against the regime. It would remove all the excuses that the regime resorts to in controlling the freedom of its citizens so tenaciously and keeping its grip so firmly on all aspects of security. Ethiopia provides an “enemy” against which an unhealthily militarized Eritrea, indeed the most militarized state in the world today, claims to stand. It would take a real change of heart to alter this scenario, and despite small steps here and there, this is one thing the regime in Asmara will not be able to come to terms with.
Ethiopia has always maintained that it will not be sidetracked from its focus on economic development by Eritrea’s repeated efforts at interference. Despite UN sanctions, Eritrea is still as defiant as ever in its opposition to the TFG and its support for Al-Shabaab terrorists in Somalia. Despite mediation efforts by third parties, Eritrea has yet to make good on its promises to resolve its dispute with Djibouti amicably.
Its destabilization activities against other countries in the region, including Ethiopia, continue unabated; and hardly a day passes without yet another group of terrorists from Eritrea attempting to infiltrate Ethiopia.
It is an open secret that since its independence was recognized the Eritrean government has committed itself to regional destabilization as a central element of foreign policy. It has done everything possible to destabilize the entire region through any means at its disposal. Equally, Ethiopia is President Isaias’ fixation, par excellence. The regime appears to consider Ethiopia’s disintegration would provide some catharsis for its own political bankruptcy. Eritrea, PFDJ logic suggests, can only fare as well as it does by dragging its southern neighbor down to its own level.
To achieve this, President Isaias and his Peoples Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) have always been prepared to find alternative options. The intensity of his resolve is nowhere more evident than in the curious mix of participants he has tried to bring together. Some promote mutually exclusive aims and policies, but that doesn’t seem to matter as long as they oppose the Ethiopian government. The only logic that holds such strange bedfellows together is a shared hatred towards the incumbent government in Ethiopia and their determination to cause chaos here.
These efforts which have been repeatedly foiled by Ethiopia may not constitute a major existential threat, but the fact that they demonstrate continuous efforts at work in the mind of Eritrea’s leader makes it impossible to dismiss them offhand as no more than mere irritants better dealt with through regular security measures. It is an insidious approach that uses a dangerous mixture: of relentless media campaigns, economic sabotage and downright terrorism. If left unchecked these could eventually cause significant harm to Ethiopia’s national interests. It is in the light of this threat that the government of Ethiopia recently announced a change of policy towards Eritrea’s repeated acts of destabilization.
The Ethiopian government has now decided to carry out a more active policy, taking measured action against Eritrea’s activities, rather than continuing the passive approach it has pursued in the past in dealing with the regime in Asmara. The change will involve using all means at Ethiopia’s disposal to force the government of Eritrea to change its ways or failing this to change the government. The first of such means is obviously diplomatic. Ethiopia has, of course, been giving diplomacy the chance to resolve its differences with Eritrea for a decade. It has pursued a peaceful and responsible approach to encourage the international community to bring pressure to bear on the government in Asmara. Unfortunately, this simply hasn’t worked. Nothing meaningful has been achieved and despite overwhelming evidence, the international community has failed to take any serious action against the government of Eritrea. This, of course, has emboldened Asmara to carry on its campaigns of destabilization. Now, Ethiopia will make every effort to invigorate diplomatic efforts to get the international community to act decisively about Eritrea. It will also make specific efforts in both IGAD and the AU.
The other major area where Ethiopia will further strengthen its activity is in supporting Eritreans in their campaign to change the government. In the past, Ethiopia has given refuge to some opposition groups and some limited support to the Eritrean resistance as well as providing refuge to those who have managed to escape. Now support to the opposition will be strengthened further, demonstrating Ethiopia’s enduring support for the cause of the Eritrean people and its resolve to bring about change in the behavior of the regime in Asmara. The government of Ethiopia is willing to support and work with any Eritrean organization which has the interest of the peoples of Eritrea as its objective.
At the same time, the Ethiopian government will also be prepared to stand up to any challenge emanating from Eritrea, directly or indirectly. For Ethiopia, the international community has never been its last line of defense against Eritrea’s destabilization. As Prime Minister Meles recently made clear, in light of Eritrea’s continuing nefarious campaigns, Ethiopia will continue to work to force the regime to change its policies or failing that it will be prepared to change the government itself through any means at its disposal. In this context, Ethiopian actions will include a proportionate response to any and every act by the regime in Asmara. No act of aggression by the government of President Isaias will be left unanswered. This is a reluctant decision but it is borne out of the government’s responsibility to protect its people and to maintain the stability and peace of the country. The regime in Asmara might well be advised to take the Prime Minister’s remarks seriously.
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