Although no Sudan/South Sudan Presidential meeting took place as had been hoped, by the end of last week significant progress had been made in the negotiations mediated by the African Union’s High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) in Addis Ababa. In the talks in the ‘economic cluster”, an agreement was reached last Friday (August 3rd) on oil transit fees, and former South African President Thabo Mbeki, head of the AUHIP was able to announce the parties had agreed on all of the financial arrangements regarding oil and “What remains is to discuss the steps as to when the oil companies should be asked to prepare for the resumption of production and export." According to the AUHIP the two parties have agreed on fees of around US$11 and US$9 for transport, processing and transit of oil along the two pipelines, and the two governments have also agreed to establish a Joint Committee to finalize any other oil issues. These include the need to drain water from the pipelines and the arrangements for the return of skilled manpower as well as other details.

The South Sudan’s leading negotiator, Pagan Amum, said this week that South Sudanexpected to begin production again "immediately in September, especially for the Upper Nile oil, of Dar Blend," adding: "It will not just be an automatic thing; it will take time to open one well after the other." Production will start from 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) and within three or four months should rise to 180,000 or 190,000 bpd. Pagan Amum said it should then get back to the previous levels or possibly even higher within a year. The agreement on oil transit fees was welcomed by President Obama, who said the leaders of both countries deserved congratulations for reaching an agreement and finding compromise; and by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who said it was in the interest of the two countries that were "intractably linked" to resume oil exportation as it is vital for their economies, as well as by UK Secretary of State, William Hague and the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Lady Ashton.

With reference to other elements of the economic cluster, the Government of South Sudan committed itself to provide US$3 billion to help fill the budget gap in Sudan left by the independence of South Sudan as that removed 75% of Sudan’s oil revenue. The two sides also agreed to launch a joint international campaign for the lifting of sanctions against Sudan. In this connection the Government of Sudan has also agreed to cover a third of the budget deficit through various austerity measures.

Another area that required considerable discussion was the political and security cluster. To help the discussion in these areas, the AUHIP has presented documents that differentiate the areas of agreement and non-agreement which helped the parties to agree on such issues as cessation of hostilities, withdrawal of armies along common borders, to stop harboring or support of rebel forces in the territories of the other party. South Sudan last week raised the case of a claimed aerial bombardment in South Sudan at the beginning of the week and UNAMISS investigated the matter. This was the only complaint presented by South Sudan under the issue of cessation of hostilities.

Borders have been harder. The Government of South Sudan has accepted the Administrative and Security map put forward by the AUHIP in November last year providing a center line for the Safe Demilitarized Border Zone (SDBZ). The Government of Sudan remains concerned about various aspects of this although the AUHIP has made it clear that this will not prejudice any final boundary demarcation, and it is not intended to demarcate the common border. Once the SDBZ is established the Joint Borders Monitoring Mechanism and Verification (JBMMV) team will monitor it in collaboration with the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA). UNISFA is asking for equal numbers of monitors from both sides. The parties have agreed to establish an ad hoc committee and agreed to develop terms of reference in this matter. The border issues of South Kordofan and Blue Nile States could not be finalized at this time because of the ongoing fighting between the SPLM-N and the Sudan Government. The AUHIP has failed to get the two sides to reach an agreement. The Government of South Sudan also raised the issue of Heglig making it clear it wants this to go to international arbitration.

Both sides have, however, agreed to the suggestion of having a group of experts to give a non-binding opinion on border issues. AUHIP has provided three experts through the African Union Border Program (AUBP): Judge Abdul Korma from Sierra Leone, Bryson Morebodi from Botswana, and Professor Maurice Kamto from Cameroon will be meeting in Addis Ababa. Mr. Mbeki noted that “The parties understand very well that it would be important that by the time oil starts flowing again, the necessary security arrangements should be in place.” The AUHIP said the two Presidents at their next summit, which would be held in September, would determine the way forward with regard to the status of Abyei, as well as the question of demarcation of agreed sections of the border which would allow the systems and mechanisms agreed in March to be activated, including the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM).

On Abyei, there are four outstanding matters, the establishment of the Abyei legislative council and the Abyei administration, the issue of the Sudan Diffra oil police, and the final status of Abyei region. According to the June agreement on the establishment of Abyei’s Legislative body, Sudan will nominate three people to be approved by South Sudan. Among these is the Speaker of the Council who will be from Sudan while the Government of South Sudan is to nominate the Chief Administrator and his Deputy. Neither has yet approved the other’s nominees. In the matter of the police, the Government of Sudan has kept 169 police at Diffra to protect oil infrastructures despite the June agreement. The two sides have now agreed that the issues of Abyei security will be handled at the next presidential summit at which Mr. Mbeki says the two leaders will sign a document relating to demarcation of agreed sections of the border allowing the systems and mechanisms agreed in March to be activated. The talks have now been adjourned until the end of Ramadan and will be resumed after Eid, in the last week of the month.

Meanwhile on Friday last week (August 3rd), the African Union’s Peace and Security Council met to review progress a day after the deadline set by the UN Security Council, August 2nd, had fallen due. The Council noted with regret that the Parties had not been able to finalize agreements by the deadline as stipulated in UN Security Council resolution 2046 (2012), however it welcomed a number of developments.

These included the cessation of fighting along the common border and the significant reduction of tension between the two countries; the deployment by Sudan and South Sudan of the members of the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM) to its temporary headquarters in Assosa, Ethiopia; agreement on the terms of reference and membership of the Ad Hoc Committee tasked to receive and investigate allegations and counter allegations of the Parties regarding violations, as outlined in the February 10th Memorandum of Understanding on Non-aggression and Cooperation; the acceptance by the Government of the Republic of South Sudan of the Administrative and Security map submitted by the AUHIP in November 2011, which provides the centerline for the Safe Demilitarized Border Zone (SDBZ); the withdrawal
by South Sudan and Sudan of their forces from Abyei, on May 10th and 29th respectively, while noting that a company of Sudan’s "oil police" remained in Diffra, and the reaffirmation by both Parties of their commitment to the Abyei Protocol of the January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), including its provisions for a referendum to determine the final status of Abyei; the agreement by the Parties to establish a Panel of Experts to provide an authoritative, nonbinding opinion on the status of disputed areas; the agreement reached with the Government of Sudan, on August 3rd, on the modalities for the delivery of humanitarian assistance to affected civilian populations in areas controlled by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement North (SPLM -N) in the Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan states, consistent with internationally accepted principles of delivery by competent and impartial agencies; and the conclusion by the Parties of the agreement regarding oil and related matters between the Parties.

The AU Peace and Security Council also reaffirmed support for the AUHIP, and encouraged it to continue and intensify its facilitation role to bridge the differences between the Parties. In conclusion it agreed that negotiations on all outstanding matters should be concluded by September 22nd. However, Susan Rice, the US Permanent Representative to the UN said after a Security Council meeting on Thursday that the Security Council will not fix a new deadline though it is meeting on Sudan and South Sudan every two weeks. At the same time she stressed that a comprehensive agreement on all outstanding issues including border demarcation and Abyei were “binding obligations” under Resolution 2046.

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Source: A Week in the Horn – Aug. 10, 2012.

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